Is it possible the Condorcet jury theorem provides not just a mathematical basis for democracy and the justice system, but a model predictor of one’s political persuasion as well?
If you’re an optimist, you have no trouble believing that p > 1/2. You give people the benefit of the doubt that they will try their best and most often, succeed in tipping over the average even if just by a hair. That’s all it takes for the theorem to prove true: that the larger the number of voters, the closer the group gets to making the “correct” decision 100% of the time.
On the other hand, if you’re a pessimist, you might quibble with that — saying that people are low-information voters who you don’t think very highly of, and don’t find very capable. You might say that people will mostly get it wrong, in which case p < 1/2 and the theory feedback loops all the way in the other direction, to where the optimal number of voters is 1: the autocrat.
A political sorting hat of sorts
Optimists will tend to believe in the power of people to self-govern and to act out of compassion a fair amount of the time, thus leaning to the left: to the Democrats, social democrats, socialists, and the alt-Left. Pessimists will tend to favor a smaller, tighter cadre of wealthy elite rulers — often, such as themselves. They might be found in the GOP, Tea Party, Freedom Caucus, Libertarian, paleoconservative, John Birch Society, Kochtopus, anarcho-capitalist, alt-Right, and other right-wing groups including the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) and other white militia groups around the country.
Granted the model is crude, but so was the original theorem — what is the “correct” choice in a political contest? Or does the Condorcet jury theorem imply that, like becoming Neo, whatever the majority chooses will by definition be The Right One for the job? π€
I’ve been reading John Stuart Mill’s “On Liberty” and am reminded of the quintessential liberal definition of the term:
The only freedom which deserves the name, is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs, or impede their efforts to obtain it.”
— John Stuart Mill, On Liberty (emphasis mine)
It seems to me that Libertarian proponents tend to make a systematic error in portraying liberty as only commensurate with the first part of Mill’s description: essentially interpreting it as, “I should be able to do whatever I want, and have no constraints placed upon my person by the government whatsoever.” The idea of “cancel culture” is a reflection of this ideal, whereby the right wing complains that moral constraints that apply to everyone should not apply to them.
This mentality misses completely the essential boundary established by the second part of Mill’s quote: that doing what one wants has limits attached, and that those limits are a proscription on engaging in activities which either harm others, or deprive others of their own rights in pursuit of liberty. An essential part of the social contract, the concern for others’ rights naturally stems from concern for your own — as the collective will bands together to guarantee our rights in common, everyone has a stake in preserving the system.
The Libertarian narcissist Venn Diagram is practically a circle.
Libertarianism sees itself in control
It believes its ideology should dominate others despite its extreme minority status. The Libertarian narcissist wants to get the benefits of the social contract and civil society, without having to pay back into the system in proportion to their usage of public resources at scale. The Libertarian political philosophy violates the fundamental, cross-cultural principle of reciprocity — exhibited in societies through the ages.
One dimension of similarity btw Libertarianism and Authoritarianism is both groups consciously or unconsciously consider themselves "outside the system," looking down on it & controlling "those other people" who are inside the system. "Secession Mentality" has a foot out the door https://t.co/snbD0rsBB1
Did Russia hack the 2016 US election? Most certainly. The FBI, CIA, and entire intelligence community is in agreement on this point. Russian information warfare has been infamous the world over for decades — with a recent flare up starting with the Brexit vote as an obvious canary in a larger coalmine, and extending to the proliferation of right-wing movements around the world: particularly in Eastern Europe on Putin’s doorstep.
The following list is an attempt to demystify the language surrounding Russian interference in the election of Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin’s efforts to undermine the Western order — in retaliation for the fall of the Soviet Union which happened under his watch as a young KGB agent stationed in Dresden, Germany.
See also: the RussiaGate Bestiary which lists the individuals involved in the Russian 2016 election interference investigation of Trump campaign conspiracy and fraud. Please note: both of these resources are works in progress and are being updated frequently.
Term
Definition
4chan
A notorious internet message board with an unruly culture capable of trolling, pranks, and crimes.
8chan
If 4chan isn't raw and lawless enough for you, try the even more right-wing "free speech"-haven 8chan, which is notorious for incubating a large swath of the Gamergate culture.
The Act
Las Vegas nightclub in the Palazzo, owned by Sheldon Adelson, under surveillance by the Nevada Gaming Control Board for obscene performances. Site of the Miss USA pageant party attended by Trump and the Agalarov's in June 2013.
active measures
information warfare aimed at undermining the West
Air Force One
The U.S. presidential plane.
AMS Panel
The GRU's "nerve center" through which they monitored the middle servers that monitored the DNC and DCCC networks. Housed on a leased computer located in Arizona.
art critic in civilian clothing
"joke" used by the KGB to refer to themselves while informing on dissidents under Soviet rule
attorney work product
backdoor
a method, often secret, of bypassing regular login authentication or encryption of a computer or server
Baku
capital of Azerbaijan
banana republic
politically unstable countries whose economies are monocultures controlled by an oligarchy; puppet states
Bank Secrecy Act
Legal statute requiring persons managing funds in excess of $10,000 in foreign banks disclose said accounts to the US Treasury.
bespredel
"limitless and total lack of accountability of the elite oligarchs"
blind trust
A financial trust in which the beneficiaries have no access to the holdings of the trust, or any knowledge of its investments and contents
Bolotnaya Square
The square was the site of the biggest protests in Russia since the Soviet era, in December 2011
Bolshevik
The majority faction within the Marxist revolutionary party led by Vladimir Lenin to power in Russia during the October Revolution of 1917, eventually becoming the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
bolt hole
A type of retreat or refuge for those in the survivalist subculture, to be absconded to in case of disaster or apocalypse.
BND
German foreign intelligence agency
bug-out location (BOL)
Another name for a bolt hole or survivalist refuge location.
Calexit
Movement to split the state of Californnia into East and West states
capital flight
Refers to the massive ongoing exodus of both legitimate and illegitimate funds of Russian oligarchs and their state cronies to "safe havens" in foreign banks and offshore accounts outside of Russia
28 C.F.R. 600.8(c)
"at the conclusion of the Special Counsel's work, he...shall provide the Attorney General a confidential report explaining the prosecution or declination decisions the Special Counsel reached"
Charter 77
Informal Czech resistance movement against the communist regime, named after a document that was deemed a political crime to distribute.
Chekism
Loyalty to the concept of an unbroken chain of Russian security services, all the way from Lenin's Cheka to the KGB to the FSB
Chronicle of Current Events
Soviet dissident periodical (samizdat) from 1968 to the early 1980s that reported on the human rights violations in the Soviet Union
Cold War
Color Revolutions
computational propaganda
cooperating witness
CPAC
Conservative Political Action Conference
CPSU
Communist Party of the Soviet Union
Crimea
territory in eastern Ukraine invaded and "annexed" by Putin in 2014; unrecognized and condemned by the international community
criminal investigation
Crocus City Hall
7000-seat theater complex in Moscow built by Aras Agalarov; site of the 2013 Miss Universe pageant in Moscow
Cuban Missile Crisis
cut out
cyberspies
cyberwarfare
Cyprus
DACA
dacha
country estate
Dark Web
data transfer
deep state
Networks of opposition within governments who undermine the official regime
strategy of easing geopolitical tensions between nations; used in particular to describe attempts to "cool off" antagonism during the Cold War
dezinformatsiya
Russian information warfare
diaspora
directories
The file folder organizational structure on your computer
disinformation
DIOG
The FBI's Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide
document theft
Donbas
Territory in eastern Ukraine where Russian aggression has resumed as of Jan 29, 2017 following two years of Minsk Two ceasefire agreement
Doomsday Clock
doxing
researching and broadcasting personally identifiable information about an individual
Duma
the lower house of the Federal Assembly, Russia's Parliament
Eastern Bloc
Echo Moskvy
Democratic radio station in Moscow seminal is thwarting the KGB-led coup against Gorbachev in 1991
encryption
"Eternal Rome"
ideology positing Russia as a geopolitical bulwark of conservatism against a weak-kneed West (part of Alexander Dugin's reformulation of Eurasianism theory)
Evening Internet
the first blog in Russia, founded by Anton Nossik
executive privilege
exfiltration
The removal or copying of data from one server to another without the knowledge of the owner
fake news
fallout shelter
false flag
covert operations designed to deceive by appearing as though they are carried out by other entities, groups, or nations than those who actually executed them
FAPSI
One of the agencies spun out from the former KGB to head Govt Comms & Info (modeled after the NSA) β this division was instrumental in controlling the unfolding of the Russian internet
Federal Assembly
Russian Parliament
fifth column
fifth world war
non-linear war; the war of all against all
Financial Crimes Enforcement NEtwork (FinCEN)
Department within the Treasury that handles and maiontains FBAR filings from US persons holding in excess of $10,000 in foreign banks.
FISA Court
FISA warrant
Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA)
Legal statute requiring those persons lobbying on behalf of a foreign government or other entity to register such with the U.S. government.
foreign bank account report (FBAR)
Required disclosure to the US treasury by persons holding in excess of $10,000 in funds in foreign banks.
forensics
FreedomFest
Conservative evangelical event annually in Las Vegas
frozen conflict zones
term for several unrecognized pseudo states within former Soviet territories who have broken away from the national government and are operating as Russian protectorates
FSB
the Russian Federal Security Service
GamerGate
Gazeta.ru
Gazprom
Russia's energy monopolgy and largest gas company
Georgia
Ghost Stories
FBI operation allowing a sleeper cell of 10 KGB spies to operate in the U.S. for 10 years, to reverse engineer their methods. At the end of the sting, FBI Director Robert Mueller rounded them all up and expelled them from the country.
glasnost
"increased government transparency" or openness β a slogan employed by Mikhail Gorbachev, Soviet leader in the 1980s
Glavplakat
"global cabal"
euphemism in far-right Russian discourse to refer to a perceived "Jewish conspiracy" behind the international order of institutions like NATO and the EU
globalization
Grand Jury
16 to 23 people impaneled to hear evidence from a legal prosecution, and decide if said prosecution has a caseworthy set of evidence to bring charges.
Grenadines
hashtag
Helsinki Accords
honeypot
hybrid warfare
IC (Intelligence Community)
iMessage
Apple's version of SMS
information warfare
interlocuter
IRC
Iskra
The main Bolshevik newspaper in the early 20th century
JacksonβVanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974
kakistocracy
keylogging
Technique that enabled the GRU to record passwords, internal communications, banking info, and sensitive personal info from compromised DCCC and DNC employees
KGB
The Soviet secret service, renowned for ruthlessness and duplicity
kleptocracy
form of government in which the leaders harbor organized crime rings and often participate in or lead them; the police, military, civil government, and other governmental agencies may routinely participate in illicit activities and enterprises.
Kommersant
Long-respected business newspaper purchased by pro-Kremlin oligarch Alisher Usmanov
kompromat
compromising material on a head of state or other important figure; typically used for blackmail purposes
Komsomol
Leninist Youth League organization for Communists aged 14 to 28 in the late 80s & early 90s
The Kremlin
Kuchino
the oldest top-secret research facility of the KGB, 12 miles east of Moscow
Kurchatov Institute
Preeminent Soviet nuclear research facility still in operation today in the far north of Moscow
Latvia
Lenta.ru
liberalism
Political and ethical framework based on individual liberty via human rights and equal protection
Logan Act
lords on the boards
Mafia state
A systematic corruption of government by organized crime syndicates.
Magnitsky Act
Maidan revolution
Student protests that ousted the Ukranian President Viktor Yanukovych, that started Nov 21, 2013.
malware
Marxism
maskirovka
war of deception and concealment
Menatep
Menshevik
middle servers
Intermediary sets of servers used by the GRU to communicate with their malware implants in infected U.S. computers and networks -- for an arm's length, plausible deniability strategy
Mimikatz
Piece of malware whose function is a hacker credential harvesting tool
Minsk Two
Colloquial name of the 2015 ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea
Mitrokhin Archive
Mokhovaya Square
well-known landmark in front of the Kremlin
MSK-IX
The main Internet exchange point in Russia
MVD
Ministry of Internal Affairs; supervises all police, prisons, and "public order militias"
nationalism
National Prayer Breakfast
neutralize
Never-Trump
Newsru.com
NKVD
a forerunner to the KGB under Stalin
non-linear warfare
NotPetya
novichok
military-grade nerve agent developed by Russia and used in the poisoning of former FSB agent turned Putin critic Andrei Skripal and his daughter in Lonson in March, 2018
Novorossia
region of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian separatists
October Revolution
the Nov 7, 1917 Bolshevik revolution and armed overthrow of the government, leading to the creation of the USSR
October Surprise
oligarchy
one-party state
open source intelligence
operating system
operatives
oppo
short form of opposition research
opposition research
OSINT
open source intelligence
Ostankino
Russia's TV network
Ozero Cooperative
perestroika
policy of restructuring or rebuilding the Soviet government, employed by Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s
plausible deniability
plea deal
plead the Fifth
Plovdiv, Bulgaria
Safe "bolt hole" identified for Eastern European hackers paid by Trump and the Kremlin if things went south
ponyatiya
an unwritten understanding about how things must be done
populism
postmodernism
"post office boxes"
Secret Soviet military and security research facilities, known only to the public by their P.O. Box number
post-truth
power grid intrusions
Prague, Czech Republic
proizvol
Russian word for "arbitrariness"
Project Lakhta
Internal name for the operation that Prigozhin's IRA was running to interfere in elections across the Western world, according to the Mueller indictments.
Project Ripon
propaganda
provokatsiya
rar.exe
A hacker tool used to compile and compress materials for exfiltration to GRU servers from the DNC and DCCC networks
Reddit
American social network inhabited by numerous denizens of the alt-Right and hosting notoriously grotesque subreddits.
refuseniks
Term given during the Soviet era, particularly under Stalin, for Jews who had been denied permission to emigrate
reiding
Relcom
One of the first private companies or "collectives" formed under Gorbachev's glasnost reforms, it brokered the first proto-Internet within the Soviet Union and first connection to the outside world β playing a key role in thwarting the attempted coup against Gorbachev by the KGB in August, 1991
rent-a-peer
retweet
When a Twitter user amplifies the tweet of another, by "retweeting" it out to her or his network
Rodina
extreme nationalist party in Russia c. 2003 that hinted at ethnic cleansing; The Guardian reported it had actually been set up as a prop by Putin & cronies, to draw votes away from the other far-right Communist Party
Rosatom
Russian company building Turkey's first nuclear plant
Rose Revolution
Peaceful protest-driven pro-Western transfer of power in the former Soviet state of Georgia in Nov 2003
Rosneft
Russia's state oil company
Rossiiskaia Gazeta
Russia's official government newspaper
RT.com
state-owned Russian news service
Rublevka
billionaire's row in Moscow
Russian Imperial Movement
part of the far-right coalition within Russia seeking to build an international consensus, this group advocates "Christian Orthodox imperial nationalism"
Russophobia
Popular hysteria against Russia and Russians perceived to be the case by Russia and Russians
samizdat
in the Soviet era, the creation by hand and distribution of copies of literature and other material banned by the state
Sberbank
Russia's largest bank
SDNs (specially designated nationals)
Individuals against whom secondary sanctions have been applied
The Seychelles
shadow profiles
Data that Facebook collects on people who are not members of Facebook, via association with their friends who are
shestidesiatniki
"Sixties' Generation" in the Soviet Union, who shared a lot in common with the American New Left. Advocated for political reform.
Siemens AG
siloviki
Russian term for those who have backgrounds and employment in security services, the military, and police; more specifically a reference to Putin's security cabal
Signal
sistema
Russian term to denote "how the government really works" (as opposed to via formal state institutions)
SJW
Social Justice Warriors, a term which has somehow been wielded as a pejorative by alt-righters and other radical right cadre, energing out of Gamergate culture.
SMS
Aka "texting"
Snow Revolution
popular protests beginning in Moscow in 2011, demanding the reinstatement of free elections & the ability to form opposition parties
sockpuppet accounts
Fake social media accounts used by trolls for deceptive and covert actions, avoiding culpability for abuse, aggression, death threats, doxxing, and other criminal acts against targets.
Solidarity
Polish workers' party confronting Communism in the late '80s
SORM
System of Operative Search Measures β the system in use by the FSB to eavesdrop on the Russian internet
South Stream pipeline
Gazprom project through Balkans and Central Europe
"sovereign democracy"
system in which democratic procedures are retained, but without any actual democratic freedoms; brainchild of Vladislav Surkov
sovereign wealth fund
spasitelnii
Russian word for "redemptive"
spearphishing
An email designed to appear as if from a trusted source, to solicit information that allows the sender to gain access to an account or network, or installs malware that later enables the sender to gain access to an account or network
specialists
Moniker given to the IRA employees assigned to operate the social media accounts in the U.S., including Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and Tumblr.
Sputnik
Russian news wire proffering fake news
Stasi
Nickname for the Ministry of State Security in East Germany during the Cold War
Steele dossier
stochastic terrorism
Stoleshnikov Lane
pedestrian street in Moscow lined with designer boutiques
St. Petersburg
Location of the headquarters for the IRA, Internet Research Agency, aka Putin's troll farm, at 55 Savushkina Street.
Strana.ru
subpoena
SUP Media
Russia's largest blogging service via acquisition of LiveJournal from Six Apart
SVR
Russian foreign intelligence service
swatting
hoaxed reports to emergency services intended to provoke a SWAT team response at the target's home; a form of Internet-based attack used by Gamergate, the alt-Right, and other groups and individuals
tax returns
The Thaw
Brief period of reform under Nikita Khrushchev between 1956 and 1964, when Khrushchev takes over from Stalin and is replaced by Leonid Brezhnev
tradecraft
"translator project"
trial balloon
Information put out or leaked to the media to gauge public reaction.
Trump Tower Moscow
Then-candidate Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with this project in 2015, while at the same time denying its existence publicly, repeatedly.
truthiness
Turkish Stream
Proposed gas pipeline allowing Russia to extend its control over Turkey and European energy markets
Ukranian occupation
unmasking
Intelligence protocol redacting American identities from transcripts of foreign intercepts
USPER
Velvet Revolution
vertical of power
reference to the tightly controlled power cabal structure Putin has amassed around himself
vKontakte
Russian social network; equivalent analog to Facebook
vlast
power
VPN
VTB
Russia's largest commercial bank
wag the dog
watering hole
hacker attacks that infect entire websites
whataboutism
Classic debate tactic of old Soviet apologists to deflect criticism of Soviet policy; whenever an American would levy a critique, the response would be, "What about the bad things America does?"
white knights
white nationalism
Wolf Creek Nuclear Operating Corporation
World National-Conservatism Movement (WNCM)
umbrella term for Russia's movement to unite an international extreme far-right coalition
X-Agent
Multifunction hacking tool that allowed Russian GRU Military Unit 26165 to log keystrokes, take screenshots, and gather other data about the infected computers
X-Tunnel
Hacking tool creating an encrypted connection between the victim DCCC/DNC computers and the GRU-controlled computers to facilitate a large-scale data transfer
Yes California
Movement to secede from the US entirely, run by Marcus Ruiz Evans, Louis J. Marinelli
Yukos
zakaz
news information that has been paid for by special interest
Some people like to argue that more economic inequality is a good thing, because it is a “natural” byproduct of capitalism in a world of “makers and takers,” “winners and losers,” “wolves and sheep,” [insert your favorite Manichaean metaphor here]. However, too much inequality is deleterious for both economics and politics — for with oligarchy comes the creep of fascism.
Those who amass exorbitant wealth often increasingly use a portion of their gains to capture politics. While the mythological premise of trickle-down economics is that we must not have progressive taxation, because giving more money to the already wealthy is the only way to spur economic investment and innovation and create jobs — in actual fact the majority of tax cut windfalls go to stock buybacks, offshore tax havens, regulatory capture, political lobbying, and campaign donations in the form of dark money (and regular money). All this is a runaway amplifying feedback loop that tilts the playing field further away from equal opportunity, social mobility, and democratic process — the original American Dream.
In the oligarchy, your vote doesn’t matter
Wealthy elites seek to preserve the power structures that have benefitted them, and keep them (and their descendants) in the ruling class. It is a slow recreation of the aristocratic societies of old Europe that we fought a bloody war of independence to separate ourselves from. Yet the erosion of civil values, public engagement, and collective will — largely as fomented by the conservative elite over the past 50 years in America — and the ascendancy of the myth of “rugged individualism” have conspired to create a perilous condition in which corruption operates so openly in today’s White House [2018] and Wall Street that democracy itself is in great danger. The creep of fascism is felt in the fell winds that blow.
Moreover, we have learned these lessons once, not quite a century ago, yet have forgotten them:
“Where there is a crisis, the ruling classes take refuge in fascism as a safeguard against the revolution of the proletariat… The bourgeoisie rules through demagoguery, which in practice means that prominent positions are filled by irresponsible people who commit follies in moments of decision.”
While multiple formal investigations against the Trump family and administration continue to unfold, and Drumpf supporters weirdly deny the probable cause for concern, Putin’s troll army continues to operate out in the open on Twitter, Facebook, Medium, and other social media networks. The sheer scale of this operation started to become clear to me in the months leading up to Election 2016, having both spent a lot of time on social media both professionally and personally for over a decade as well as a hefty amount of time on political investigation during this presidential cycle: bots on Twitter had taken over.
Whatever your thoughts on the #RussiaGate corruption scandal may be, it should concern any citizen that an enormous group of bad actors is working together to infiltrate American social media, with a specific intent to sway politics. Media literacy is one part of the answer, but we’re going to need new tools to help us identify accounts that are only present in bad faith to political discourse: they are not who they claim to be, and their real goals are kept carefully opaque.
Cold War 2.0
We should consider our nation embroiled in a large international game of psychological warfare, or PsyOps as it is referred to in intelligence circles. The goal is to sow disinformation as widely as possible, such that it becomes very difficult to discern what separates truth from propaganda. A secondary goal is to sow dissent among the citizenry, particularly to rile up the extremist factions within America’s two dominant political parties in an attempt to pull the political sphere apart from the center.
We didn’t really need much help in that department as it is, with deep partisan fault lines having been open as gaping wounds on the American political landscape for some decades now — so the dramatically escalated troll army operation has acted as an intense catalyst for further igniting the power kegs being stored up between conservatives and progressives in this country.
Luckily there are some ways to help defray the opposition’s ability to distract and spread disinfo by identifying the signatures given off by suspicious accounts. I’ve developed a few ways to evaluate whether a given account may be a participant in paid propaganda, or at least is likely to be misrepresenting who they say they are, and what their agenda is.
Sometimes it’s fun to get embroiled in a heated “tweetoff,” but I’ve noticed how easy it is to feel “triggered” by something someone says online and how the opposition is effectively “hacking” that tendency to drag well-meaning people into pointless back-and-forths designed not to defend a point of view, but simply to waste an activist’s time, demoralize them, and occupy the focus — a focus that could be better spent elsewhere on Real Politics with real citizens who in some way care about their country and their lives.
Bots on Twitter have “Tells”
1) Hyper-patriotism
– Conspicuously hyper-patriotic bio (and often, name) – Posts predominantly anti-Democrat, anti-liberal/libtard, anti-Clinton, anti-Sanders, anti-antifa etc. memes:
2) Hyper-Christianity
– Conspicuously hyper-Christian in bio and/or name of bots on Twitter:
3) Abnormally high tweet volume
Seems to tweet &/or RT constantly without breaks — supporting evidence of use of a scheduler tool at minimum, and displaying obviously automated responses from some accounts. The above account, for example, started less than 2 years ago, has tweeted 15,000 more times than I have in over 10 years of frequent use (28K). Most normal people don’t schedule their tweets — but marketers and PR people do.
4) Posts only about politics and one other thing (usually a sport)
– Posts exclusively about politics and potentially one other primary “normie” topic, which is often a sport – May proclaim to be staunchly not “politically correct”:
5) Hates Twitter Lists
– Bots on Twitter have a strange aversion to being added to Lists, or making Lists of their own:
6) Overuse of hashtags
– Uses hashtags more than normal, non-marketing people usually do:
7) Pushes a one-dimensional message
– Seems ultimately too one-dimensional and predictable to reflect a real personality, and/or too vaguely similar to the formula:
8) Redundant tweets
– Most obviously of all, it retweets the same thing over and over again:
9) Rehashes a familiar set of memes
– Tweets predominantly about a predictable set of memes:
Mismatched location and time zone is another “tell” — and although you can’t get the second piece of data from the public profile, it is available from the Twitter API. If you know Python and/or feel adventurous, I’m sharing an earlier version of the above tool on Github (and need to get around to pushing the latest version…) — and if you know of any other “tells” please share by commenting or tweeting at me. Next bits I want to work on include:
Examining follower & followed networks against a matchlist of usual suspect accounts
Looking at percentage of Cyrillic characters in use
Graphing tweet volume over time to identify “bot” and “cyborg” periods
Looking at “burst velocity” of opposition tweets as bot networks are engaged to boost messages
Digging deeper into the overlap between the far-right and far-left as similar memes are implanted and travel through both “sides” of the networks
Before we dive into the perils of issue policing, I have to say that it’s heartening to see so many new faces and hear many new voices who may in the past have not explicitly considered themselves “activists,” or who have felt a greater call to stand up against a political administration whose ideologies show every indication of running counter to a constitutional democratic framework.
If that describes you: THANK YOU! You are awesome. And if you’re an Old Hat at this sort of thing, this post is for you too — by way of initiating a civil dialogue with some of the fresh faces you see in your timeline or in your local community who may be exhibiting the following behavior:
Making claims that issue X, Y, or Z is “not important” or “not as important” as issue A, B, or C — which is what we should really be discussing right now.
Here’s why this behavior tends to do more harm than good:
Without the doing of some thing brand inappropriate
Something unmonetizable
Unclickable
Untraceable
Untradeable Β
|
If i don't rend the cloth of this Culture Fit soon
i will die
Like the coral
Like two-thirds of the wild
Like the humans on the edge of a rising shoreline
In a ceaseless world
With iceless poles
And icy proles Β
|
As the planet heats,
Civilization chills;
Swallowing our red or our blue pills;
Interned into camps of grievers and shills
|
Grieve i do and for the West
Our president the Bigly Best!
We'll come and go at his behest
Put down your Freedom of Info Requests
Baby, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
|
Joe Walsh got his balls out, and his musket too
The Lefties dream of Saskatoon
We're all gonna get that Change real soon
You'll see when fascism hits High Noon
|
We'll finish tearing ourselves apart
In the streets and in the dark
Can no longer recreate in this park
Leslie Knope didn't fit the part
|
She had the mighty audacity
To take purview over Benghazi
Once Bush and Blair left Qaddafi
Those GOP goons would never get off me
|
My God, all the emails
The Chaffetz' anemic security details
At least we're swaddled by all this retail
Black Friday's never been so beyond the pale
|
Pale as a ghost
White as a sheet
Our New Balance host
Circle jerks its meat
|
Of all the PUAs and all the Teas
Even the most mundane of these
See the female as a tease
Hang the browns up in the trees
We're all strange fruit upon our knees
|
Ain't no more reason to appease
Already done killed off all them bees
Turnt up the thermostat a few degrees
TVs blaring back our postmodern sleaze
|
Found ourselves a favorite scapegoat
And a good long length of real strong rope
The corruption will be all excised
By the 'tubes chock full of Russian spies
This revolution will be televised
As America just dies and dies
Russian aggression is mercurial — itβs getting harder to tell anymore who is being paid to push pro-Russian messages, and who has just been sadly taken in by them. For all this braggadocio (braggadocious, even!) about βbuilding a wallβ to keep supposed Mexican rapists out (although net migration has been falling with our southern neighbor for some time and is now net negative), no matter what the outcome of next Tuesdayβs election, the βbordersβ around the internet will remain difficultβββif not impossibleβββto police for the foreseeable future.
This all makes our breathless, behind-closed-doors hand-wringing over Soviet Communist influence over the population in the 1960s seem like childβs play. No need to train up a double agent over a lifetime and infiltrate the corridors of state power anymoreβββjust fire up Twitter (or Medium).
The Cold War is thawing
It thus probably shouldnβt be as shocking as it has been to find the pro-Russian lovefest coming just as hard from the far-left as it has from the far-right. It stems from a good place (for the most part): a heartfelt desire for peace and the youthful misunderstanding of how difficult (read: impossible) that has been to achieve throughout history. Still, we always want to believe weβve cracked the nutβββthat Mutually Assured Destruction now keeps us safe from all the power-hungry demons of the world.
Unfortunately, the Cold War is thawing. With theΒ Russian economy reportedly in dire straitsΒ thanks to fragile over-reliance on oil and gas production combined with the precipitous drop in oil prices over the past 18 months, Putin is in a state. A state of keeping theΒ angry ailing Russian classes distracted by the drums of war, while aiming to keep the pampered, self-absorbed American classes distractedΒ fromΒ the drums of war. So far to great successβββat least on the latter front. Itβs hard to speak to the former, although all the paid trollsΒ doΒ seem mighty angry.
Since we can barely pull our heads out of our navels in the U.S. to remember thereβs a whole other world outside of our Big Orange Terror Bubble (which is by turns understandable and deeply concerning), I wanted to record here a timeline of Russian aggression events in the lead-up to where we are today (re-purposed from this post with some additional backstory on the Green Party candidateβs Jill Stein involvement with Putin):
2008 — Putin invades Georgia, an event regarded as the first European war of the 21st century
Perhaps history will one day show that the deepest destruction wrought by globalization was not the disintegration of Americaβs manufacturing sector, nor its incentivization of capital flight, but its damage to the last pillars of an aging democratic architecture slowly corroded by neoliberal economic policies in fashion since the Reagan years.
I still see a lot of denialism on this point about the DNC email hacks from the far-left (or the alt-left, depending on your favored terminology), which is a bit devastating to see as it essentially parrots the pro-Russian ideology of the far-right (both the alt-right and the neo-libertarian flavors). Green Party candidate Jill Stein is an especially pernicious promoter of this myth that Vladimir Putin is a poor, innocent, peaceful world leader who is being bullied by NATO (when in fact, Russia has been the aggressor since its annexation of Crimea in 2014).
DNC email hacks forensic evidence
Two separate Russian-affiliated adversaries were behind the attacks, according to a post-mortem by cyber-security firm CrowdStrike when the news of the intrusion first broke in early June, 2016. This has since been confirmed by other independent security firms including Fidelis, Mandiant, SecureWorks, and ThreatConnect as well as corroborated by analysis from Ars Technica and Edward Snowden.
At this point the US intelligence community is confident enough to formally accuse Russia of involvement in the hacks, and are currently investigating other breaches of voter registration databases in Arizona and Illinois as well as in Floridaβββthe key battleground state from the 2000 election that handed GWB an unfortunate victory. Elsewhere, there is ample evidence of Putinβs extensive disinformation campaign being waged online (including several experiences I have myself witnessed), which is the continuation of a long through line of wielding propaganda as a tool from the former head of the KGB.
A RussiaGate Bestiary: Principal actors and related extras in the 2016 election scandal
The Russian Mafia State: How the former USSR has become a sclerotic kleptocracy under the rule of former KGB agent Vladimir Putin, who vowed revenge on the West after his station in Dresden, East Germany was overrun by angry citizens during the month leading up to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Be careful of our barnacled, crusty cynicism and the cavalier rabbit hole it could lead us down — away from the longest-running success story in human rights.
Democracy works only if political leaders put the common good ahead of personal interest. There is zero evidence Trump would even be equipped to deliver on this, should the interest in it ever be made to enter his mind.
Clinton restored the stature of American diplomacy around the world. Trump asked Russia to find her hacked emails and interfere with the US presidential election.
Mike Flynn leading chants of “lock her up!” from the RNC podium was a test for tolerance of persecution of political opponents. We don’t do that in this country. At least, not in modern times we haven’t.
Each new boundary pushed is a test for when we’ll snap, or when the base will have finally gone too far. We haven’t hit it yet. They’re snarling; out for blood.