Want us tame and domesticated — docile, like house pets. Worker bees. Mechanical drones.
The ruling elite
Optimism and the Condorcet jury theorem
Is it possible the Condorcet jury theorem provides not just a mathematical basis for democracy and the justice system, but a model predictor of one’s political persuasion as well?
If you’re an optimist, you have no trouble believing that p > 1/2. You give people the benefit of the doubt that they will try their best and most often, succeed in tipping over the average even if just by a hair. That’s all it takes for the theorem to prove true: that the larger the number of voters, the closer the group gets to making the “correct” decision 100% of the time.
On the other hand, if you’re a pessimist, you might quibble with that — saying that people are low-information voters who you don’t think very highly of, and don’t find very capable. You might say that people will mostly get it wrong, in which case p < 1/2 and the theory feedback loops all the way in the other direction, to where the optimal number of voters is 1: the autocrat.
A political sorting hat of sorts
Optimists will tend to believe in the power of people to self-govern and to act out of compassion a fair amount of the time, thus leaning to the left: to the Democrats, social democrats, socialists, and the alt-Left. Pessimists will tend to favor a smaller, tighter cadre of wealthy elite rulers — often, such as themselves. They might be found in the GOP, Tea Party, Freedom Caucus, Libertarian, paleoconservative, John Birch Society, Kochtopus, anarcho-capitalist, alt-Right, and other right-wing groups including the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) and other white militia groups around the country.
Granted the model is crude, but so was the original theorem — what is the “correct” choice in a political contest? Or does the Condorcet jury theorem imply that, like becoming Neo, whatever the majority chooses will by definition be The Right One for the job? 🤔
…if so, we definitively have the wrong President.
We crave the sacred
… some pure, holy, unchanging thing. A perfect, Platonic form.
But there is nothing unchanging. And religion is overall fading — except at the edges; the extremes.
We want desperately to believe in something. This can make us vulnerable to hucksters, tricksters, deceivers, and all kinds of charms and fakery. The modern life condition exacerbates this, with its fractious social isolationism, vapid consumerism, and erosion of community.
May I suggest that we could find solace by cultivating belief in ourselves, and in each other? Be critical when warranted, but beat back this terrible cynicism that engulfs public discourse, filling it with day to day ennui. We don’t have to be at each other’s throats.
Libertarian beliefs: monopolies rule
According to Libertarian beliefs, the government should be as minimal as possible so as not to interfere with the workings of business. But how do you then prevent monopoly capitalism under a minimalist Night Watchman State?
The answer is: you don’t — which is “working as intended” to a libertarian. Both because their contempt for the government is so great they would sacrifice our very national treasures if it meant squeezing another cent out of the public coffers, and because they are fans of monopoly capitalism. Greed is good, and “competition is for losers” (according to tech billionaire Peter Thiel) — so what if the invisible hand must be made to slap around the little guy?!
Money is a religion, and these people are True Believers.
Arguments for an open world
For friends of the Open Society who, like me, would prefer not to block the movement of people, ideas, and trade — some arguments for an open world:
- Trade agreements are net contributors to economic growth
- Immigrants are net contributors to economic growth
- Money spent on the security industrial complex economy has low ROI vs. education, infrastructure, and research spending
- A diversity of ideas more likely leads to the best outcomes vs. a paucity of ideas
- Companies with more women leaders are more profitable
- The more the merrier!
It’s the opposite of tribalism
Philosopher Karl Popper defined an open society as being opposed to a tribal or collectivist society — one driven by magical beliefs and magical thinking. He theorized that because all knowledge is provisional, we should always remain open to alternative points of view that may offer new information and perspectives. Critical thinking is paramount, as individuals are confronted with personal decisions that have no ready-made ritual to apply to their solution.
Values of an open world:
- cultural and religious pluralism
- humanitarianism
- equality
- political freedom
- critical thinking in the face of communal group think
The axis is no longer Right vs. Left
It’s Center vs. Extreme.
Extremism is being aided and abetted by technology. By feedback loops that light up with extremism’s most extremes.
Theory: Libertarians are the Narcissists of the Far-Right
I’ve been reading John Stuart Mill’s “On Liberty” and am reminded of the quintessential liberal definition of the term:
The only freedom which deserves the name, is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs, or impede their efforts to obtain it.”
— John Stuart Mill, On Liberty
(emphasis mine)
It seems to me that Libertarian proponents tend to make a systematic error in portraying liberty as only commensurate with the first part of Mill’s description: essentially interpreting it as, “I should be able to do whatever I want, and have no constraints placed upon my person by the government whatsoever.” The idea of “cancel culture” is a reflection of this ideal, whereby the right wing complains that moral constraints that apply to everyone should not apply to them.
This mentality misses completely the essential boundary established by the second part of Mill’s quote: that doing what one wants has limits attached, and that those limits are a proscription on engaging in activities which either harm others, or deprive others of their own rights in pursuit of liberty. An essential part of the social contract, the concern for others’ rights naturally stems from concern for your own — as the collective will bands together to guarantee our rights in common, everyone has a stake in preserving the system.
Harm
Being fixated with avoiding taxation, the Libertarian will proclaim that the government is coercing him out of his hard-earned monies — but this fails to recognize the real harm being done to the lower classes by the deprivation of funds to support the basic level of public goods required to preserve life at a subsistence level as well as social mobility: the essence of the American dream.
In short, Libertarian dogma tends to be singularly focused on the self-interest of the upper classes without any attendant regard to the rights of others that may be trampled on by either class oppression or the capturing and consolidation of political power in the hands of the wealthy. It fails systematically to recognize the perspective of the “other side,” i.e. those who are harmed by the enactment of the Libertarian ideology — much as a narcissist lacks empathy — and with it, the capability of seeing others’ perspectives. You could in some ways consider it yet another form of denialism, as well as a cousin or perhaps even sibling to authoritarianism.
The Libertarian narcissist Venn Diagram is practically a circle.
Libertarianism sees itself in control
It believes its ideology should dominate others despite its extreme minority status. The Libertarian narcissist wants to get the benefits of the social contract and civil society, without having to pay back into the system in proportion to their usage of public resources at scale. The Libertarian political philosophy violates the fundamental, cross-cultural principle of reciprocity — exhibited in societies through the ages.
Russian Information Warfare Dictionary: Terminology for the New Cold War
Did Russia hack the 2016 US election? Most certainly. The FBI, CIA, and entire intelligence community is in agreement on this point. Russian information warfare has been infamous the world over for decades — with a recent flare up starting with the Brexit vote as an obvious canary in a larger coalmine, and extending to the proliferation of right-wing movements around the world: particularly in Eastern Europe on Putin’s doorstep.
The following list is an attempt to demystify the language surrounding Russian interference in the election of Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin’s efforts to undermine the Western order — in retaliation for the fall of the Soviet Union which happened under his watch as a young KGB agent stationed in Dresden, Germany.
See also: the RussiaGate Bestiary which lists the individuals involved in the Russian 2016 election interference investigation of Trump campaign conspiracy and fraud. Please note: both of these resources are works in progress and are being updated frequently.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| 4chan | A notorious internet message board with an unruly culture capable of trolling, pranks, and crimes. |
| 8chan | If 4chan isn't raw and lawless enough for you, try the even more right-wing "free speech"-haven 8chan, which is notorious for incubating a large swath of the Gamergate culture. |
| The Act | Las Vegas nightclub in the Palazzo, owned by Sheldon Adelson, under surveillance by the Nevada Gaming Control Board for obscene performances. Site of the Miss USA pageant party attended by Trump and the Agalarov's in June 2013. |
| active measures | information warfare aimed at undermining the West |
| Air Force One | The U.S. presidential plane. |
| AMS Panel | The GRU's "nerve center" through which they monitored the middle servers that monitored the DNC and DCCC networks. Housed on a leased computer located in Arizona. |
| art critic in civilian clothing | "joke" used by the KGB to refer to themselves while informing on dissidents under Soviet rule |
| attorney work product | |
| backdoor | a method, often secret, of bypassing regular login authentication or encryption of a computer or server |
| Baku | capital of Azerbaijan |
| banana republic | politically unstable countries whose economies are monocultures controlled by an oligarchy; puppet states |
| Bank Secrecy Act | Legal statute requiring persons managing funds in excess of $10,000 in foreign banks disclose said accounts to the US Treasury. |
| bespredel | "limitless and total lack of accountability of the elite oligarchs" |
| blind trust | A financial trust in which the beneficiaries have no access to the holdings of the trust, or any knowledge of its investments and contents |
| Bolotnaya Square | The square was the site of the biggest protests in Russia since the Soviet era, in December 2011 |
| Bolshevik | The majority faction within the Marxist revolutionary party led by Vladimir Lenin to power in Russia during the October Revolution of 1917, eventually becoming the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. |
| bolt hole | A type of retreat or refuge for those in the survivalist subculture, to be absconded to in case of disaster or apocalypse. |
| BND | German foreign intelligence agency |
| bug-out location (BOL) | Another name for a bolt hole or survivalist refuge location. |
| Calexit | Movement to split the state of Californnia into East and West states |
| capital flight | Refers to the massive ongoing exodus of both legitimate and illegitimate funds of Russian oligarchs and their state cronies to "safe havens" in foreign banks and offshore accounts outside of Russia |
| 28 C.F.R. 600.8(c) | "at the conclusion of the Special Counsel's work, he...shall provide the Attorney General a confidential report explaining the prosecution or declination decisions the Special Counsel reached" |
| Charter 77 | Informal Czech resistance movement against the communist regime, named after a document that was deemed a political crime to distribute. |
| Chekism | Loyalty to the concept of an unbroken chain of Russian security services, all the way from Lenin's Cheka to the KGB to the FSB |
| Chronicle of Current Events | Soviet dissident periodical (samizdat) from 1968 to the early 1980s that reported on the human rights violations in the Soviet Union |
| Cold War | |
| Color Revolutions | |
| computational propaganda | |
| cooperating witness | |
| CPAC | Conservative Political Action Conference |
| CPSU | Communist Party of the Soviet Union |
| Crimea | territory in eastern Ukraine invaded and "annexed" by Putin in 2014; unrecognized and condemned by the international community |
| criminal investigation | |
| Crocus City Hall | 7000-seat theater complex in Moscow built by Aras Agalarov; site of the 2013 Miss Universe pageant in Moscow |
| Cuban Missile Crisis | |
| cut out | |
| cyberspies | |
| cyberwarfare | |
| Cyprus | |
| DACA | |
| dacha | country estate |
| Dark Web | |
| data transfer | |
| deep state | Networks of opposition within governments who undermine the official regime |
| demoshiza | short for ‘democratic schizophrenics’ |
| deposition | |
| détente | strategy of easing geopolitical tensions between nations; used in particular to describe attempts to "cool off" antagonism during the Cold War |
| dezinformatsiya | Russian information warfare |
| diaspora | |
| directories | The file folder organizational structure on your computer |
| disinformation | |
| DIOG | The FBI's Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide |
| document theft | |
| Donbas | Territory in eastern Ukraine where Russian aggression has resumed as of Jan 29, 2017 following two years of Minsk Two ceasefire agreement |
| Doomsday Clock | |
| doxing | researching and broadcasting personally identifiable information about an individual |
| Duma | the lower house of the Federal Assembly, Russia's Parliament |
| Eastern Bloc | |
| Echo Moskvy | Democratic radio station in Moscow seminal is thwarting the KGB-led coup against Gorbachev in 1991 |
| encryption | |
| "Eternal Rome" | ideology positing Russia as a geopolitical bulwark of conservatism against a weak-kneed West (part of Alexander Dugin's reformulation of Eurasianism theory) |
| Evening Internet | the first blog in Russia, founded by Anton Nossik |
| executive privilege | |
| exfiltration | The removal or copying of data from one server to another without the knowledge of the owner |
| fake news | |
| fallout shelter | |
| false flag | covert operations designed to deceive by appearing as though they are carried out by other entities, groups, or nations than those who actually executed them |
| FAPSI | One of the agencies spun out from the former KGB to head Govt Comms & Info (modeled after the NSA) — this division was instrumental in controlling the unfolding of the Russian internet |
| Federal Assembly | Russian Parliament |
| fifth column | |
| fifth world war | non-linear war; the war of all against all |
| Financial Crimes Enforcement NEtwork (FinCEN) | Department within the Treasury that handles and maiontains FBAR filings from US persons holding in excess of $10,000 in foreign banks. |
| FISA Court | |
| FISA warrant | |
| Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) | Legal statute requiring those persons lobbying on behalf of a foreign government or other entity to register such with the U.S. government. |
| foreign bank account report (FBAR) | Required disclosure to the US treasury by persons holding in excess of $10,000 in funds in foreign banks. |
| forensics | |
| FreedomFest | Conservative evangelical event annually in Las Vegas |
| frozen conflict zones | term for several unrecognized pseudo states within former Soviet territories who have broken away from the national government and are operating as Russian protectorates |
| FSB | the Russian Federal Security Service |
| GamerGate | |
| Gazeta.ru | |
| Gazprom | Russia's energy monopolgy and largest gas company |
| Georgia | |
| Ghost Stories | FBI operation allowing a sleeper cell of 10 KGB spies to operate in the U.S. for 10 years, to reverse engineer their methods. At the end of the sting, FBI Director Robert Mueller rounded them all up and expelled them from the country. |
| glasnost | "increased government transparency" or openness — a slogan employed by Mikhail Gorbachev, Soviet leader in the 1980s |
| Glavplakat | |
| "global cabal" | euphemism in far-right Russian discourse to refer to a perceived "Jewish conspiracy" behind the international order of institutions like NATO and the EU |
| globalization | |
| Grand Jury | 16 to 23 people impaneled to hear evidence from a legal prosecution, and decide if said prosecution has a caseworthy set of evidence to bring charges. |
| Grenadines | |
| hashtag | |
| Helsinki Accords | |
| honeypot | |
| hybrid warfare | |
| IC (Intelligence Community) | |
| iMessage | Apple's version of SMS |
| information warfare | |
| interlocuter | |
| IRC | |
| Iskra | The main Bolshevik newspaper in the early 20th century |
| Jackson–Vanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974 | |
| kakistocracy | |
| keylogging | Technique that enabled the GRU to record passwords, internal communications, banking info, and sensitive personal info from compromised DCCC and DNC employees |
| KGB | The Soviet secret service, renowned for ruthlessness and duplicity |
| kleptocracy | form of government in which the leaders harbor organized crime rings and often participate in or lead them; the police, military, civil government, and other governmental agencies may routinely participate in illicit activities and enterprises. |
| Kommersant | Long-respected business newspaper purchased by pro-Kremlin oligarch Alisher Usmanov |
| kompromat | compromising material on a head of state or other important figure; typically used for blackmail purposes |
| Komsomol | Leninist Youth League organization for Communists aged 14 to 28 in the late 80s & early 90s |
| The Kremlin | |
| Kuchino | the oldest top-secret research facility of the KGB, 12 miles east of Moscow |
| Kurchatov Institute | Preeminent Soviet nuclear research facility still in operation today in the far north of Moscow |
| Latvia | |
| Lenta.ru | |
| liberalism | Political and ethical framework based on individual liberty via human rights and equal protection |
| Logan Act | |
| lords on the boards | |
| Mafia state | A systematic corruption of government by organized crime syndicates. |
| Magnitsky Act | |
| Maidan revolution | Student protests that ousted the Ukranian President Viktor Yanukovych, that started Nov 21, 2013. |
| malware | |
| Marxism | |
| maskirovka | war of deception and concealment |
| Menatep | |
| Menshevik | |
| middle servers | Intermediary sets of servers used by the GRU to communicate with their malware implants in infected U.S. computers and networks -- for an arm's length, plausible deniability strategy |
| Mimikatz | Piece of malware whose function is a hacker credential harvesting tool |
| Minsk Two | Colloquial name of the 2015 ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea |
| Mitrokhin Archive | |
| Mokhovaya Square | well-known landmark in front of the Kremlin |
| MSK-IX | The main Internet exchange point in Russia |
| MVD | Ministry of Internal Affairs; supervises all police, prisons, and "public order militias" |
| nationalism | |
| National Prayer Breakfast | |
| neutralize | |
| Never-Trump | |
| Newsru.com | |
| NKVD | a forerunner to the KGB under Stalin |
| non-linear warfare | |
| NotPetya | |
| novichok | military-grade nerve agent developed by Russia and used in the poisoning of former FSB agent turned Putin critic Andrei Skripal and his daughter in Lonson in March, 2018 |
| Novorossia | region of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian separatists |
| October Revolution | the Nov 7, 1917 Bolshevik revolution and armed overthrow of the government, leading to the creation of the USSR |
| October Surprise | |
| oligarchy | |
| one-party state | |
| open source intelligence | |
| operating system | |
| operatives | |
| oppo | short form of opposition research |
| opposition research | |
| OSINT | open source intelligence |
| Ostankino | Russia's TV network |
| Ozero Cooperative | |
| perestroika | policy of restructuring or rebuilding the Soviet government, employed by Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s |
| plausible deniability | |
| plea deal | |
| plead the Fifth | |
| Plovdiv, Bulgaria | Safe "bolt hole" identified for Eastern European hackers paid by Trump and the Kremlin if things went south |
| ponyatiya | an unwritten understanding about how things must be done |
| populism | |
| postmodernism | |
| "post office boxes" | Secret Soviet military and security research facilities, known only to the public by their P.O. Box number |
| post-truth | |
| power grid intrusions | |
| Prague, Czech Republic | |
| proizvol | Russian word for "arbitrariness" |
| Project Lakhta | Internal name for the operation that Prigozhin's IRA was running to interfere in elections across the Western world, according to the Mueller indictments. |
| Project Ripon | |
| propaganda | |
| provokatsiya | |
| rar.exe | A hacker tool used to compile and compress materials for exfiltration to GRU servers from the DNC and DCCC networks |
| American social network inhabited by numerous denizens of the alt-Right and hosting notoriously grotesque subreddits. | |
| refuseniks | Term given during the Soviet era, particularly under Stalin, for Jews who had been denied permission to emigrate |
| reiding | |
| Relcom | One of the first private companies or "collectives" formed under Gorbachev's glasnost reforms, it brokered the first proto-Internet within the Soviet Union and first connection to the outside world — playing a key role in thwarting the attempted coup against Gorbachev by the KGB in August, 1991 |
| rent-a-peer | |
| retweet | When a Twitter user amplifies the tweet of another, by "retweeting" it out to her or his network |
| Rodina | extreme nationalist party in Russia c. 2003 that hinted at ethnic cleansing; The Guardian reported it had actually been set up as a prop by Putin & cronies, to draw votes away from the other far-right Communist Party |
| Rosatom | Russian company building Turkey's first nuclear plant |
| Rose Revolution | Peaceful protest-driven pro-Western transfer of power in the former Soviet state of Georgia in Nov 2003 |
| Rosneft | Russia's state oil company |
| Rossiiskaia Gazeta | Russia's official government newspaper |
| RT.com | state-owned Russian news service |
| Rublevka | billionaire's row in Moscow |
| Russian Imperial Movement | part of the far-right coalition within Russia seeking to build an international consensus, this group advocates "Christian Orthodox imperial nationalism" |
| Russophobia | Popular hysteria against Russia and Russians perceived to be the case by Russia and Russians |
| samizdat | in the Soviet era, the creation by hand and distribution of copies of literature and other material banned by the state |
| Sberbank | Russia's largest bank |
| SDNs (specially designated nationals) | Individuals against whom secondary sanctions have been applied |
| The Seychelles | |
| shadow profiles | Data that Facebook collects on people who are not members of Facebook, via association with their friends who are |
| shestidesiatniki | "Sixties' Generation" in the Soviet Union, who shared a lot in common with the American New Left. Advocated for political reform. |
| Siemens AG | |
| siloviki | Russian term for those who have backgrounds and employment in security services, the military, and police; more specifically a reference to Putin's security cabal |
| Signal | |
| sistema | Russian term to denote "how the government really works" (as opposed to via formal state institutions) |
| SJW | Social Justice Warriors, a term which has somehow been wielded as a pejorative by alt-righters and other radical right cadre, energing out of Gamergate culture. |
| SMS | Aka "texting" |
| Snow Revolution | popular protests beginning in Moscow in 2011, demanding the reinstatement of free elections & the ability to form opposition parties |
| sockpuppet accounts | Fake social media accounts used by trolls for deceptive and covert actions, avoiding culpability for abuse, aggression, death threats, doxxing, and other criminal acts against targets. |
| Solidarity | Polish workers' party confronting Communism in the late '80s |
| SORM | System of Operative Search Measures — the system in use by the FSB to eavesdrop on the Russian internet |
| South Stream pipeline | Gazprom project through Balkans and Central Europe |
| "sovereign democracy" | system in which democratic procedures are retained, but without any actual democratic freedoms; brainchild of Vladislav Surkov |
| sovereign wealth fund | |
| spasitelnii | Russian word for "redemptive" |
| spearphishing | An email designed to appear as if from a trusted source, to solicit information that allows the sender to gain access to an account or network, or installs malware that later enables the sender to gain access to an account or network |
| specialists | Moniker given to the IRA employees assigned to operate the social media accounts in the U.S., including Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and Tumblr. |
| Sputnik | Russian news wire proffering fake news |
| Stasi | Nickname for the Ministry of State Security in East Germany during the Cold War |
| Steele dossier | |
| stochastic terrorism | |
| Stoleshnikov Lane | pedestrian street in Moscow lined with designer boutiques |
| St. Petersburg | Location of the headquarters for the IRA, Internet Research Agency, aka Putin's troll farm, at 55 Savushkina Street. |
| Strana.ru | |
| subpoena | |
| SUP Media | Russia's largest blogging service via acquisition of LiveJournal from Six Apart |
| SVR | Russian foreign intelligence service |
| swatting | hoaxed reports to emergency services intended to provoke a SWAT team response at the target's home; a form of Internet-based attack used by Gamergate, the alt-Right, and other groups and individuals |
| tax returns | |
| The Thaw | Brief period of reform under Nikita Khrushchev between 1956 and 1964, when Khrushchev takes over from Stalin and is replaced by Leonid Brezhnev |
| tradecraft | |
| "translator project" | |
| trial balloon | Information put out or leaked to the media to gauge public reaction. |
| Trump Tower Moscow | Then-candidate Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with this project in 2015, while at the same time denying its existence publicly, repeatedly. |
| truthiness | |
| Turkish Stream | Proposed gas pipeline allowing Russia to extend its control over Turkey and European energy markets |
| Ukranian occupation | |
| unmasking | Intelligence protocol redacting American identities from transcripts of foreign intercepts |
| USPER | |
| Velvet Revolution | |
| vertical of power | reference to the tightly controlled power cabal structure Putin has amassed around himself |
| vKontakte | Russian social network; equivalent analog to Facebook |
| vlast | power |
| VPN | |
| VTB | Russia's largest commercial bank |
| wag the dog | |
| watering hole | hacker attacks that infect entire websites |
| whataboutism | Classic debate tactic of old Soviet apologists to deflect criticism of Soviet policy; whenever an American would levy a critique, the response would be, "What about the bad things America does?" |
| white knights | |
| white nationalism | |
| Wolf Creek Nuclear Operating Corporation | |
| World National-Conservatism Movement (WNCM) | umbrella term for Russia's movement to unite an international extreme far-right coalition |
| X-Agent | Multifunction hacking tool that allowed Russian GRU Military Unit 26165 to log keystrokes, take screenshots, and gather other data about the infected computers |
| X-Tunnel | Hacking tool creating an encrypted connection between the victim DCCC/DNC computers and the GRU-controlled computers to facilitate a large-scale data transfer |
| Yes California | Movement to secede from the US entirely, run by Marcus Ruiz Evans, Louis J. Marinelli |
| Yukos | |
| zakaz | news information that has been paid for by special interest |
The straw that broke the camel’s back: the firing of James Comey
The FBI took the extraordinary step of initiating a counterintelligence investigation into the President of the United States, based according to the New York Times on the firing of James Comey and Trump‘s public actions surrounding that event, in which he linked the firing to the Russia investigation vociferously several times.
This is a historical first.
Hold on to your hats.
Capitalism vs. Democracy
Gather ’round, y’all — it’s the fight of our times…
How much decision-making should be privately made, vs. collectively? Arguably, decisions that affect most of us ought, in some way, to incorporate input from the public.
But as Elizabeth Warren 2020 (!!) notes — it’s getting harder and harder to do that, even as economic opportunities dry up and the wealthy capture more and more of the political class.
With Senate giants Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders all exploring bids too, it’s shaping up to be a very interesting 2020 indeed. With so many all-star Democrats in this mix, it’s hard to imagine we won’t come out of this with an interesting campaign season — beginning approximately now, with Warren’s semi-official entry into the arena and owning the airwaves as Trump comes unhinged at “Pocahontas.”
She dressed him down easily, gracefully, and quickly — before moving on into substantive economic issues most Americans are going to want to hear a lot more about. Trump cannot speak this way about the economy, which means his ruse on the Hillbilly Elegies of the world is about to come to an abrupt end, with many of their rude awakening.
For some it will never dawn on them that the man of the golden toilets (and golden showers!) who inherited hundreds of millions of dollars from his New York real estate mogul father before bankrupting himself 4 times in the casino business, in point of fact can in no way understand their experience living in a motor home or ramshackle apartment complex in some run-down suburb in the rust belt. But many may finally see that he’s just been pretending, like all the other rich people who still rule their damn lives despite all the promises to “drain the swamp” of corruption.
Let’s hope.
Here’s to 2020! 🥂
Happy 2019, United States and world!
We have endured much together these past 2-3 years, Team America. Thankfully our civil society is incredibly robust — and time is accelerating demographic gains in an inexorably democratic direction. As Boomers give way to Millennials — slated to happen as early as this year — we are experiencing a seismic shift in the national consciousness.
Our values as a nation-state have always been evolving as the political consciousness and cultural landscapes shift, but in recent political times the changes have been radical, seemingly sudden, and jarring in a way that collective memory does not easily recall. I believe we are witnessing the swan song of a generation — the largest post-WWII generation dominant demo for decades, now facing only the long decline.
Much is said of the Hillbilly Elegies of our country, but to be fair these elders are legitimately terrified: of the U.S. they see around them today — bearing little resemblance to the nation of their boomingly patriarchal childhoods; of the world outside our borders and the immigrants (theoretically; allegedly) streaming into them illegally; of long disused portions of America drying up and economically (and in some cases literally) tumbleweeding away; of their own impending mortality.
We go high
Michelle Obama was right. Is right. We should make ourselves aware of the kinds of games the other side is willing to employ, but endeavor not to play them ourselves as much as we can. But beyond a moral reason to love thy neighbor, there’s the practical matter that we may find common cause in surprising territories. Non-wealthy elder whites and young Millennials who struggled through the 2008 housing and banking crash both have reason to want a robust safety net, for example. This is the essence of democratic politics done well: coalition-building — not among special interests, but among elected leaders representing their constituents in good faith.
The arc of justice
…goes at its own pace, or something like that. Fascism has a creep (or at the moment, more of an open stride), and justice has a methodical process of evidence-gathering and weighing; we can have some solid faith in the latter to do its work. Regardless of the levels of bitter partisanship in the air, we have an enormous cadre of professional civil servants who do their often thankless jobs tirelessly for years and decades out of the limelight, for sub-private sector pay and little recognition. This cohort works tirelessly for us now, investigating the many tentacles of the Trump corruption operation stretching back years and decades into American life and foreign investment.
Mr Mueller, do your worst. By which I mean your best. We understand each other, I think. 👍🏽⚖️
Peter Thiel and Palmer Luckey: Welfare queens
Peter Thiel and Palmer Luckey are a particularly toxic breed of billionaire welfare queen, who outwardly revile government with every chance they get while having both sucked at its teat to make their fortunes, and currently making a luxe living on taxpayer largesse.
Thiel’s Paypal and Facebook-induced riches rode the coattails of the DARPA-created internet, while Luckey had his exit to internet giant Facebook. Now Thiel helms creepy-AF data mining company Palantir, whose tentacles are wrapped all the way around the intelligence community’s various agencies, while Luckey’s Thiel-funded startup Anduril is bidding for lucrative defense contracts to build Trump’s border wall. It’s the stuff of full-on right-wing neocon wet dreams for both men.
They follow in a long line of right-wing denialism in which Austrian School econ acolytes (and trickle down aficionados) have claimed to be self-made men while reaping untold rewards from lucrative military contracts and other sources of government funding or R&D windfall. Barry Goldwater once famously invoked the mythology of the independent cowboy to describe his successful rise (as would union man Ronald Reagan years later) — when in reality he inherited the family department store business that itself became viable only due to the public money pouring in to nearby military installations springing up in Arizona since as far back as the Civil War.
Even without the American government as their businesses’ largest client, the Libertarian ideal of disproportionately enjoying the fruits of public goods while viciously fighting against the taxation required to pay for them puts the lie to these mens’ claims of Ayn Randian moral supremacy. The ritual flogging of so-called “Great Man Theory” animates all sorts of dangerous social projects such as the world’s richest man purchasing the de facto town square and turning it into a right-wing plaything.
If we’re lucky, Luckey will create some sort of VR seasteading community that sucks the Silicon Valley Supremacists right in and traps them in a sort of Libertarian Matrix forever.
More on Peter Thiel and his right-wing political network:
- Buddies with right-wing Silicon Valley venture capitalist David Sacks
- Member of the PayPal Mafia
- Funded successful Ohio Senator JD Vance‘s campaign
- Funded loser Blake Masters’ Senatorial campaign in Arizona in 2022
A Short History of the Cold War 2.0, So Far
Please Note: This is very much a work in progress and much of the timeline hasn’t yet made it from my notes and scribblings into the Timeline.js environment that makes this interactive data visualization possible. Stay tuned… but for now, at least you can get a bit of a sense how deep this #Russiagate rabbit hole goes.
Oligarchy and the Creep of Fascism
Some people like to argue that more economic inequality is a good thing, because it is a “natural” byproduct of capitalism in a world of “makers and takers,” “winners and losers,” “wolves and sheep,” [insert your favorite Manichaean metaphor here]. However, too much inequality is deleterious for both economics and politics — for with oligarchy comes the creep of fascism.
Those who amass exorbitant wealth often increasingly use a portion of their gains to capture politics. While the mythological premise of trickle-down economics is that we must not have progressive taxation, because giving more money to the already wealthy is the only way to spur economic investment and innovation and create jobs — in actual fact the majority of tax cut windfalls go to stock buybacks, offshore tax havens, regulatory capture, political lobbying, and campaign donations in the form of dark money (and regular money). All this is a runaway amplifying feedback loop that tilts the playing field further away from equal opportunity, social mobility, and democratic process — the original American Dream.
In the oligarchy, your vote doesn’t matter
Wealthy elites seek to preserve the power structures that have benefitted them, and keep them (and their descendants) in the ruling class. It is a slow recreation of the aristocratic societies of old Europe that we fought a bloody war of independence to separate ourselves from. Yet the erosion of civil values, public engagement, and collective will — largely as fomented by the conservative elite over the past 50 years in America — and the ascendancy of the myth of “rugged individualism” have conspired to create a perilous condition in which corruption operates so openly in today’s White House [2018] and Wall Street that democracy itself is in great danger. The creep of fascism is felt in the fell winds that blow.
Moreover, we have learned these lessons once, not quite a century ago, yet have forgotten them:
“Where there is a crisis, the ruling classes take refuge in fascism as a safeguard against the revolution of the proletariat… The bourgeoisie rules through demagoguery, which in practice means that prominent positions are filled by irresponsible people who commit follies in moments of decision.”
— Czeslaw Milosz, The Captive Mind
Putin’s Greatest Weakness: The Russian Economy
Dictatorships generally do not foster, or even tolerate, the kind of creative disruption of the status quo necessary to the existence of a dynamic free market. Plus, the economy of the Russian state can best be described as a mafia state, or kleptocracy. Thus Vladimir Putin needs to find other ways to shore up both the national finances and the support of his cronies (much less so, of his people, who are primarily afterthoughts in the Russian power structure).
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the rapid shift to capitalism was done with little oversight and many hands in the cookie jar. The Russian land’s rich stores of minerals, oil and gas, heavy metals, and other natural resources were rapidly privatized and newly-minted oligarchs flexed wealth and power in a way never before dreamed of in the former USSR.
The combination of powerful new gatekeepers who locked up the Russian economy early via capital flight and never let it go overshadowed the capitalistic transition and, in a very real way, hijacked it before it ever really got underway. The result is, some 30 years on, an unpopular creaking kleptocratic regime reviled around the world for its stubborn aggression, subversion of democratic processes around the world particularly in Europe and the United States, support for organized crime, and significant financial crimes on the part of the state itself.
Putin’s autocratic rule from dull to terrifyingly devious has a chilling effect on hope, self-determination, self-governance, and ultimately — on happiness, freedom, and creativity. Totalitarianism is capable of exerting control, but always fails to inspire anything except for eventual revolution against the oppressors.
Here is a granular look at major indicators of the economy of the Russian Federation.