Philosophy

Curtis Yarvin advocating dictatorship in a Rachel Maddow segment linking him to JD Vance and the plot to shut down higher education in America

Curtis Yarvin, born in 1973, is a software developer and political theorist whose controversial neo-reactionary views have rippled through both Silicon Valley and right-wing political circles. Writing under the pseudonym Mencius Moldbug, Yarvin gained notoriety for his influential blog “Unqualified Reservations,” where he advanced ideas that challenge the foundations of democracy and equality.

Yarvin wasn’t always a fringe political figure. Raised in a secular, liberal family—his paternal grandparents were Jewish American communists, and his father worked for the U.S. Foreign Service—he grew up with a global perspective, spending part of his childhood in Cyprus. But it was after reading figures like Thomas Carlyle and Hans-Hermann Hoppe that Yarvin turned sharply to the right. Disillusioned by libertarianism, he carved out his own niche in far-right ideology, a space he has termed “neo-reaction.”

“The Cathedral” and Neo-Reactionary Thought

At the heart of Yarvin’s philosophy is what he calls “formalism”—a system that would replace modern democracy with something akin to monarchy. His ideas reject progressive norms and push for a consolidation of power akin to aligning political authority with property rights. Yarvin coined the term “Cathedral” to describe the intertwined power structures of mainstream media, academia, and the bureaucracy that he believes work together to perpetuate liberal democracy.

The alt-right movement critical to Trump‘s election in 2016 was influenced by neoreactionary ideology, and many key figures and beliefs overlap between these facets of the modern right-wing movement. Both arms share a close relationship to Silicon Valley, from a desire to be ruled by a technocratic elite to meme culture and beyond. They both share connections to the ideology of accelerationism espoused by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and others — resulting in a “strange bedfellows” effect within the mainstream Republican Party in which technocratic elites share common goals of overthrowing democracy with right-wing religious zealots including, most prominently, Christian nationalists.

Silicon Valley Influence

Yarvin’s ideologies have found an audience among Silicon Valley’s elite, where some of his most ardent admirers hold significant clout. Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and noted libertarian-turned-conservative, has supported Yarvin’s work both ideologically and financially. Thiel’s venture capital firm, Founders Fund, even backed Yarvin’s tech startup, Tlon, which developed the decentralized computing platform Urbit.

Steve Bannon, the former White House strategist, is also a known reader of Yarvin’s work, while political figures like 2024 Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance and failed 2022 AZ Senate candidate Blake Masters—both backed financially by Thiel—have cited and promoted Yarvin’s ideas.

Tech Hubris Meets Political Hubris

Yarvin’s Urbit project, launched in 2002, is a decentralized computing platform designed to overhaul the current internet structure, aligning with his broader vision of restructuring power. Though he left Tlon in 2019, he remains involved with Urbit’s development and continues to influence the tech space through his ideas, despite the controversy surrounding them.

Critics have slammed Yarvin’s views as deeply racist and fascistic, pointing to his writings that flirt with dangerous notions about race and slavery. His ideas—though offensive to many—seem to thrive in niche spaces where libertarian techno-utopianism meets far-right authoritarianism, making him a key figure in the ongoing discourse about the future of governance, especially in a tech-dominated age.

Here’s Rachel Maddow’s segment highlighting the Vance-Yarvin connection:

Curtis Yarvin represents an ideological fusion that’s hard to ignore: Silicon Valley’s boundless ambition meets a longing for autocratic rule. In this strange nexus, he’s helped shape a disturbing vision of the future, one where tech CEOs could potentially wear the crown.

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In half a decade we’ve gone from Jeb Bush making a serious run for president to Marjorie Taylor Greene running unopposed and winning a House seat in Georgia. QAnon came seemingly out of nowhere, but taps into a much deeper and older series of conspiracy theories that have surfaced, resurfaced, and been remixed throughout time.

Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? In an increasingly complex world of information bombarding us as blinding speed and high volume, the cognitive appeal of easy answers and turnkey “community” may be much stronger than ever before.

List of conspiracy theory books

It’s a deep topic so we’d best get started. If you’ve got an urgent issue with a friend or loved one, start here:

Best for deprogramming a friend:

Escaping the Rabbit Hole: How to Debunk Conspiracy Theories Using Facts, Logic, and Respect — Mick West

More conspiracy theory books:

Richard Hofstadter’s Anti-Intellectualism in American Life is a sharp exploration of the recurring tension between intellectualism and populism in the United States. Hofstadter traces the roots of American anti-intellectualism, revealing how a distrust of intellectual elites has been woven into the fabric of American culture, often tied to religious fervor, educational systems, and political movements. He argues that this skepticism towards intellectuals has influenced public policy and shaped national identity, creating a persistent undercurrent that challenges the value of critical thinking and expertise in the public sphere. Through historical analysis, Hofstadter illuminates how this strain of thought has impacted American democracy, often in ways that prioritize emotional appeal over reasoned discourse.

Kurt Andersen’s Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire: A 500-Year History offers a sweeping narrative that traces America’s propensity for embracing fantastical thinking from the earliest settlers to the present day. Andersen argues that the American tendency to blur the lines between reality and fantasy has deep historical roots, driven by a unique blend of religious zeal, entrepreneurial spirit, and cultural escapism. He explores how this inclination has shaped everything from politics to entertainment, resulting in a culture where conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, and magical thinking thrive. Through sharp analysis and a broad historical lens, Andersen paints a vivid picture of how America’s love affair with fantasy has led to the current era of “alternative facts” and widespread distrust of objective truth.

Lee McIntyre’s On Disinformation: How to Fight for Truth and Protect Democracy is a concise yet powerful examination of the threat disinformation poses to truth and democratic values. McIntyre explores the origins and tactics of disinformation campaigns, revealing how they exploit cognitive biases and social media to sow confusion and distrust. He emphasizes that disinformation is not just a byproduct of misinformation but a deliberate weapon used to undermine public discourse and erode the foundations of democracy. The book provides a call to action, urging individuals and institutions to become vigilant defenders of truth through critical thinking, media literacy, and active resistance against the forces of disinformation. With a clear-eyed approach, McIntyre offers practical strategies for combating this growing menace in a time when truth itself is under siege.

Mia Bloom and Sophia Moskalenko’s Pastels and Pedophiles: Inside the Mind of QAnon delves into the disturbing world of QAnon, unraveling the psychological and social dynamics that fuel its growth. The authors explore how this conspiracy theory, with its bizarre blend of pastel aesthetics and lurid allegations of pedophilia, has captivated a diverse array of followers. Bloom and Moskalenko dissect the movement’s appeal, showing how it taps into deep-seated fears, identity politics, and a longing for community in a time of uncertainty. They reveal the real-world consequences of QAnon’s spread, from fractured families to violent extremism, and highlight the challenges of deprogramming those ensnared by its false narratives. Through rigorous analysis and empathetic insight, the book offers a critical look at how conspiracy theories like QAnon thrive in a polarized society and the urgent need to address their dangerous influence.

Anna Merlan’s Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy Theorists and Their Surprising Rise to Power is an incisive exploration of the burgeoning influence of conspiracy theories in American life. Merlan takes readers on a journey through the diverse and often troubling world of conspiracy believers, from UFO enthusiasts to anti-vaxxers, exposing the cultural and political forces that have propelled these fringe ideas into the mainstream. She delves into how conspiracy theories have gained traction across the political spectrum, fueled by distrust in institutions and amplified by the internet’s echo chambers. With a keen eye for detail and a compassionate approach, Merlan uncovers the real-world impact of these theories, from shaping political movements to influencing national discourse. The book serves as a wake-up call to the power of misinformation and the urgent need to understand and counter the spread of dangerous ideologies in an increasingly fractured society.

Rob Brotherton’s Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories delves into the psychology behind why conspiracy theories are so compelling and why they persist in human societies. Brotherton examines the cognitive biases and psychological tendencies that make us prone to seeing patterns, connecting dots, and doubting official narratives, even when evidence is lacking. He explores the historical and cultural contexts that have given rise to various conspiracy theories, showing how they tap into deep-seated fears and uncertainties. By blending psychology with history, Brotherton provides a nuanced understanding of why conspiracy theories are not just fringe beliefs but a fundamental part of human thinking. The book challenges readers to recognize their own susceptibility to conspiratorial thinking and emphasizes the importance of critical thinking in a world where misinformation can easily take root.

Gustave Le Bon’s The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind is a pioneering work in social psychology that examines the behavior of crowds and the psychological mechanisms that drive collective action. Le Bon argues that individuals, when part of a crowd, lose their sense of individual responsibility and rationality, becoming susceptible to emotional contagion and impulsive behavior. He explores how crowds can be swayed by charismatic leaders, simplistic ideas, and the power of suggestion, often leading to irrational and sometimes destructive outcomes. Le Bon’s analysis extends to the ways in which crowds influence politics, culture, and social movements, offering insights into the dynamics of mass psychology that remain relevant today. His work lays the foundation for understanding how public opinion can be manipulated and how groupthink can override reason, making it a fascinating text for anyone interested in the psychology of collective behavior.

Eric Hoffer’s The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements is a profound exploration of the psychological and social forces that drive individuals to join and commit to mass movements. Hoffer examines the appeal of these movements to the “true believer,” a person often disillusioned with their current life and seeking purpose through collective identity. He argues that mass movements, whether religious, political, or social, provide a sense of belonging and certainty by offering simple, absolute answers to complex problems. Hoffer delves into the dynamics of fanaticism, showing how movements attract followers who are willing to sacrifice their individuality for the cause. His insights into the motivations behind mass movements remain strikingly relevant, shedding light on how charismatic leaders and unifying ideologies can mobilize people, often with profound and sometimes dangerous consequences. The book serves as a timeless analysis of the psychological underpinnings of social movements and the power they wield over the human psyche.

Jeff Sharlet’s The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War is a haunting and evocative exploration of the deepening political and cultural divides in contemporary America. Through a series of vivid, immersive narratives, Sharlet captures the voices and lives of people across the country who are caught up in the rising tide of polarization, extremism, and unrest. He paints a picture of a nation at a tipping point, where the fractures in society are widening, and the specter of a “slow civil war” looms ever larger. With his keen eye for detail and empathetic storytelling, Sharlet reveals how fear, anger, and a longing for belonging are driving forces behind the growing tensions, offering a powerful and unsettling portrait of a country on the brink.

Jesse Walker’s The United States of Paranoia: A Conspiracy Theory offers a comprehensive and insightful history of conspiracy theories in American culture, showing how they have been a persistent and influential force throughout the nation’s history. Walker categorizes these theories into five archetypes—enemy outside, enemy within, enemy above, enemy below, and the benevolent conspiracy—illustrating how each has manifested in different eras and contexts. He argues that conspiracy thinking is not just a fringe phenomenon but a fundamental part of American political and social life, shaping public discourse and policy. By tracing the evolution of conspiracies from the colonial period to the present, Walker reveals how they reflect deeper anxieties and cultural tensions, often serving as a means for people to make sense of complex and unsettling realities. The book underscores the idea that paranoia is woven into the fabric of American identity, influencing how people perceive power, trust, and truth.

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Project 2025 mind map of entities

Project 2025, led by former Trump official Paul Dans and key conservative figures within The Heritage Foundation, sets forth an ambitious conservative and Christian nationalist vision aimed at fundamentally transforming the role of the federal government. Leonard Leo, a prominent conservative known for his influence on the U.S. Supreme Court‘s composition, is among the project’s leading fundraisers.

The initiative seeks to undo over a century of progressive reforms, tracing back to the establishment of a federal administrative framework by Woodrow Wilson, through the New Deal by Roosevelt, to Johnson’s Great Society. It proposes a significant reduction in the federal workforce, which stands at about 2.25 million people.

Project 2025 plans

Essential measures include reducing funding for, or even abolishing, key agencies such as the Department of Justice, the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Departments of Education and Commerce. Additionally, Project 2025 intends to bring semi-independent agencies like the Federal Communications Commission under closer presidential control.

At its heart, Project 2025 aims to secure a durable conservative dominance within the federal government, aligning it closely with the principles of the MAGA movement and ensuring it operates under the direct oversight of the White House. The project is inspired by the “unitary executive theory” of the Constitution, which argues for sweeping presidential authority over the federal administrative apparatus — in direct contradiction with the delicate system of checks and balances architected by the Founders.

It is also inspired by religious fervor (and the cynical exploitation thereof) — and Project 2025 has brought together a pantheon of Christian nationalist organizations and groups to draft policy that could be implemented with alacrity, select potential appointees for the administration, build networks with GOP at the state and local levels — and with right wing groups and networks around the world.

Project 2025 goals

To realize their extremist, authoritarian goal, Dans is actively recruiting what he terms “conservative warriors” from legal and government networks, including bar associations and offices of state attorneys general. The aim is to embed these individuals in key legal roles throughout the government, thereby embedding the conservative vision deeply within the federal bureaucracy to shape policy and governance for the foreseeable future.

Continue reading What is Project 2025: The GOP’s plan for taking power
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In this post, we dive deep into the heart of American political tradition by presenting a complete collection of first presidential inaugural address speeches that have shaped the United States from its inception to the present day. Each speech, a time capsule of its era, is summarized up front (with a link to the full text) to highlight the core messages, visions, and promises made by the presidents at the dawn of their administrations during their first (or singular) inaugural address.

Accompanying these summaries, we’ve included visual opportunities to get a sense of the inauguration speeches “at a glance,” via word clouds and histograms. These are generated from the text of the speeches themselves, to offer a uniquely infovisual perspective on the recurring themes, values, and priorities that resonate through America’s history.

One of the earliest Presidential inaugural speeches, as imagined by Midjourney

Understanding our history is not just about recounting events; it’s about connecting with the voices that have guided the nation’s trajectory at each pivotal moment. These speeches are more than formalities; they are declarations of intent, reflections of the societal context, and blueprints for the future, delivered at the crossroads of past achievements and future aspirations.

By exploring these speeches, we not only gain insight into the leadership styles and political climates of each period but also engage with the evolving identity of America itself. We can compare the use of language by different presidents in a way that reflects both shifting trends in culture and geopolitics as well as the character and vision of the leaders themselves.

This collection serves as a vital resource for anyone looking to grasp the essence of American political evolution and the enduring principles that continue to inform its path forward.

George Washington inaugural address (1789)

Washington speech summary

George Washington’s inaugural speech, delivered in New York City on April 30, 1789, reflects his reluctance and humility in accepting the presidency. He expresses deep gratitude for the trust placed in him by his fellow citizens and acknowledges his own perceived inadequacies for the monumental task ahead.

Continue reading US Presidents Inaugural Address Speech Mega List
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Fundamentalism starves the mind. It reduces and narrows a universe of dazzlingly fascinating complexity available for infinite exploration — and deprives millions of people throughout the ages of the limitless gifts of curiosity.

The faux finality of fundamentalism is a kind of death wish — a closing off of pathways to possibility that are lost to those human minds forever. It’s a closing of the doors of perception and a welding shut of the very openings that give life its deepest meaning.

It is tragic — a truly heartbreaking process of grooming and indoctrination into a poisonous worldview; the trapping of untold minds in airless, sunless rooms of inert stagnation for an eternity. What’s worse — those claustrophobic minds aim to drag others in with them — perhaps to ease the unbearable loneliness of being surrounded only by similitude.

They are threatened by the appearance of others outside the totalist system that entraps them — and cannot countenance the evidence of roiling change that everywhere acts as a foil to their mass-induced delusions of finality. It gnaws at the edges of the certainty that functions to prop them up against a miraculous yet sometimes terrifying world of ultimate unknowability.

Continue reading Fundamentalism starves the mind
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Machiavellianism originates from Machiavelli’s most famous work, “The Prince,” written in 1513. It was a guidebook for new princes and rulers in maintaining power and control. Machiavelli’s central thesis was the separation of politics from ethics and morality. He argued that to maintain power, a ruler might have to engage in amoral or unethical actions for the state’s benefit. His stark realism and advocacy for political pragmatism were groundbreaking at the time.

Machiavelli’s work was revolutionary, providing a secular, pragmatic approach to governance, in contrast to the prevailing moralistic views of the era. His ideas were so radical that “Machiavellian” became synonymous with cunning, scheming, and unscrupulous behavior in politics. This term, however, is a simplification and somewhat misrepresents Machiavelli’s nuanced arguments about power and statecraft.

Throughout history, Machiavellianism has been interpreted in various ways. During the Enlightenment, philosophers like Rousseau criticized Machiavelli for promoting tyranny and despotism. However, in the 20th century, Machiavelli’s ideas were re-evaluated by political scientists who saw value in his separation of politics from morality, highlighting the complexity and real-world challenges of governance.

Machiavellianism in psychology

In psychology, Machiavellianism is defined as a personality trait characterized by a duplicitous interpersonal style, a cynical disregard for morality, and a focus on self-interest and personal gain. This concept was popularized in the 1970s by Richard Christie and Florence L. Geis, who developed the Mach-IV test, a questionnaire that identifies Machiavellian tendencies in individuals. People high in Machiavellian traits tend to be manipulative, deceitful, predatory, and exploitative in their relationships and interactions.

Machiavellianism in American politics

In American politics, Machiavellianism can be observed in various strategies and behaviors of politicians and political groups. Here are some ways to identify Machiavellian tendencies:

  1. Exploitation and Manipulation: Politicians exhibiting Machiavellian traits often manipulate public opinion, exploit legal loopholes, or use deceptive tactics to achieve their goals. This might include manipulating media narratives, twisting facts, disseminating disinformation, and/or exploiting populist sentiments.
  2. Realpolitik and Pragmatism: Machiavellianism in politics can also be seen in a focus on realpolitik – a theory that prioritizes practical and pragmatic approaches over moral or ideological considerations. Politicians might adopt policies that are more about maintaining power or achieving pragmatic goals than about adhering to ethical standards.
  3. Power Play and Control: Machiavellian politicians are often characterized by their relentless pursuit of power. They may engage in power plays, such as political patronage, gerrymandering, and/or consolidating power through legislative maneuvers, often at the expense of democratic norms.
  4. Moral Flexibility: A key aspect of Machiavellianism is moral flexibility – the ability to adjust one’s moral compass based on circumstances. In politics, this might manifest in policy flip-flops or aligning with ideologically diverse groups when it benefits one’s own interests.
  5. Charismatic Leadership: Machiavelli emphasized the importance of a ruler’s charisma and public image. Modern politicians might cultivate a charismatic persona to gain public support, sometimes using this charm to mask more manipulative or self-serving agendas.

Machiavellianism, stemming from the teachings of Niccolò Machiavelli, has evolved over centuries, influencing both political theory and psychology. In contemporary American politics, identifying Machiavellian traits involves looking at actions and policies through the lens of power dynamics, manipulation, moral flexibility, and a pragmatic approach to governance.

While Machiavellian strategies can be effective in achieving political goals, they often raise ethical questions about the nature of power and governance in a democratic society.

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The story of The Illuminati begins in 1776 with the formation of the Bavarian Illuminati, a secret society founded by Adam Weishaupt, a German law professor. Weishaupt, disillusioned with the limitations of conventional education and the power wielded by the church, sought to create an organization that promoted Enlightenment ideals: reason, secularism, and rationality.

The Illuminati initially attracted intellectuals, freethinkers, and progressive politicians. They discussed controversial ideas like secularism, civil rights, and rational thought, which were radical during a period dominated by religious and monarchical power.

Spread and suppression

The society grew quickly but covertly. By the 1780s, it had infiltrated various influential circles, including Masonic lodges. However, their secrecy and progressive ideas alarmed conservative and religious authorities.

The Illuminati gazing towards the Eye of Providence, by Midjourney

In 1785, Charles Theodore, Elector of Bavaria, banned all secret societies, including the Illuminati, and vigorously pursued its members. This suppression led to the disbandment and scattering of its adherents.

Conspiracy theories begin

Despite its dissolution, the Illuminati’s legacy persisted, giving birth to numerous conspiracy theories. The French Revolution (1789-1799) was a significant catalyst.

Some conservative European authors speculated that the Illuminati survived and masterminded the revolution as part of a grand scheme to overthrow monarchies and religions across Europe. In this way, The Illuminati were already outliving themselves in the mind of the public.

The 19th and 20th centuries: Spread of theories

Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, the myth of the Illuminati persisted. Anti-Semitic propagandists in the 19th century, including the authors of the notorious “Protocols of the Elders of Zion,” falsely claimed that Jews and Freemasons (often conflated with the Illuminati) were plotting global domination. This pernicious myth found a receptive audience in various parts of the world, notably influencing Adolf Hitler and the Nazi ideology.

The Modern Era

In the 20th century, especially during the Cold War, conspiracy theories about the Illuminati evolved and spread. They were often used as political tools to instigate fear about perceived enemies, both internal and external.

In recent decades, the Illuminati has been a staple in popular culture, appearing in books, movies, and music. This omnipresence in media has played a significant role in keeping the conspiracy theory alive in the public imagination.

Psychological and sociological perspectives

The staying power of the Illuminati conspiracy theory can be attributed to various psychological and sociological factors:

  1. Human Nature and Mystery: Humans are naturally drawn to mystery and the allure of secret societies. The idea of a hidden group controlling world events is both frightening and fascinating.
  2. Simplification of Complex Issues: Conspiracy theories provide simple explanations for complex world events. Blaming a single, shadowy organization for significant historical and current events is easier than understanding the multifaceted nature of these occurrences.
  3. Powerlessness and Control: In times of uncertainty or powerlessness, conspiracy theories offer a sense of understanding and control. Believing in the Illuminati can make the world seem more predictable and manageable.
  4. Political and Ideological Utility: Various groups have used the Illuminati conspiracy theory to advance their political or ideological agendas, often as a tool to discredit opponents or rally support against a perceived common enemy.

The Illuminati conspiracy theory is a fascinating case study in the power of ideas and myths. From its inception as a small secret society advocating Enlightenment ideals to its current status as a symbol of covert global domination, the Illuminati myth reflects deeper human needs and fears.

Its stickiness highlights our enduring fascination with the unknown and our propensity to find patterns and meanings, sometimes where none exist. As society continues to evolve, the myth of the Illuminati is likely to persist, morphing to fit the anxieties and questions of each new generation.

Books about the Illuminati

Books about conspiracy theories

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When someone has skin in the game, they have some stake in the outcome of their opinion or decision. They are incentivized to act in their own best interest, naturally aligning them with the best outcome. It mitigates effects like moral hazard, which misaligns incentives of the parties in an interaction based on an asymmetry of knowledge, power, and/or other factors.

The metaphor of skin in the game also relates to a number of core concepts in moral philosophy:

  • moral hazard
  • fairness
  • justice
  • transparency
  • authenticity
  • integrity
  • responsibility
  • good faith
  • honor
  • honesty
  • truthworthiness
  • forthrightness
  • earnestness
  • steadfastness
  • being true to one’s word

The term “skin in the game” is said to have originated from gambling, where it denotes having a personal stake or investment in an endeavor. In a broader sense, it implies that individuals or entities have something of personal value at risk in the outcome of a situation, typically financial or reputational.

Ethical implications

  1. Accountability and Responsibility: When an individual or entity has “skin in the game,” they are more likely to act responsibly and ethically. This stems from the direct impact their actions will have on their own welfare. For example, a business owner with a substantial personal investment in their company is more likely to make decisions that ensure long-term sustainability over quick, risky profits that could jeopardize the business.
  2. Trust and Credibility: In contexts like financial advising or political leadership, having “skin in the game” builds trust. Stakeholders are more likely to trust someone who shares in the risks and rewards. It demonstrates a commitment to shared outcomes, which can be a strong ethical foundation.
  3. Moral Hazard Reduction: The concept helps mitigate moral hazards—situations where one party takes risks because another party bears the cost of those risks. For instance, if a CEO’s compensation is tied to the company’s performance, they have a vested interest in the company’s success, reducing the likelihood of risky behavior that could harm the company while benefiting themselves personally.

Aligned incentives

The notion of “skin in the game” is closely linked to the alignment of incentives, which is crucial for effective and ethical decision-making.

  1. Mutual Interests: When all parties involved in a decision or project have something at stake, their interests become more aligned. This alignment leads to decisions that are more likely to benefit all involved, rather than favoring one party at the expense of others.
  2. Long-term Planning: Aligned incentives encourage long-term thinking. When decision-makers share in the long-term risks and rewards, they are incentivized to plan for sustainable growth and stability.
  3. Risk Sharing: It also implies a fair distribution of risks. In a well-aligned system, no single party bears an undue burden of risk, which fosters a more equitable and ethical environment.

Skin in the game quotes

The price of greatness is responsibility.

Winston Churchill

Top Mental Models for Thinkers ↗

Model thinking is an excellent way of improving our cognition and decision making abilities.

28 Cognitive distortions list ↗

Cognitive distortions are bad mental habits and unhelpful ways of thinking that can limit one’s ability to function in the world.

24 Logical fallacies list ↗

Recognizing and avoiding logical fallacies is essential for critical thinking and effective communication.

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republican vs. democrat cage match boxing ring

Buckle up, we’re in for a wild ride. Many of the serious scholars of political history and authoritarian regimes are sounding the alarm bells that, although it is a very very good thing that we got the Trump crime family out of the Oval Office, it is still a very very bad thing for America to have so rapidly tilted towards authoritarianism. How did we get here?! How has hyper partisanship escalated to the point of an attempted coup by 126 sitting Republican House Representatives? How has political polarization gotten this bad?

These are some of the resources that have helped me continue grappling with that question, and with the rapidly shifting landscape of information warfare. How can we understand this era of polarization, this age of tribalism? This outline is a work in progress, and I’m planning to keep adding to this list as the tape keeps rolling.

Right-Wing Authoritarianism

Authoritarianism is both a personality type and a form of government — it operates at both the interpersonal and the societal level. The words authoritarian and fascist are often used interchangeably, but fascism is a more specific type of authoritarianism, and far more historically recent.

America has had flavors of authoritarianism since its founding, and when fascism came along the right-wing authoritarians ate it up — and deeply wanted the United States to be a part of it. Only after they became social pariahs did they change position to support American involvement in World War II — and some persisted even after the attack of Pearl Harbor.

With Project 2025, Trump now openly threatens fascism on America — and sadly, some are eager for it. The psychology behind both authoritarian leaders and followers is fascinating, overlooked, and misunderstood.

Scholars of authoritarianism

  • Hannah Arendt — The Origins of Totalitarianism
  • Bob Altemeyer — The Authoritarians
  • Derrida — the logic of the unconscious; performativity in the act of lying
  • ketman — Ketman is the psychological concept of concealing one’s true aims, akin to doublethink in Orwell’s 1984, that served as a central theme to Polish dissident Czesław Miłosz‘s book The Captive Mind about intellectual life under totalitarianism during the Communist post-WWII occupation.
  • Erich Fromm — coined the term “malignant narcissism” to describe the psychological character of the Nazis. He also wrote extensively about the mindset of the authoritarian follower in his seminal work, Escape from Freedom.
  • Eric Hoffer — his book The True Believers explores the mind of the authoritarian follower, and the appeal of losing oneself in a totalist movement
  • Fascism — elevation of the id as the source of truth; enthusiasm for political violence
  • Tyrants and dictators
  • John Dean — 3 types of authoritarian personality:
    • social dominators
    • authoritarian followers
    • double highs — social dominators who can “switch” to become followers in certain circumstances
  • Loyalty; hero worship
    • Freud = deeply distrustful of hero worship and worried that it indulged people’s needs for vertical authority. He found the archetype of the authoritarian primal father very troubling.
  • Ayn Rand
    • The Fountainhead (1943)
    • Atlas Shrugged (1957)
    • Objectivism ideology
  • Greatness Thinking; heroic individualism
  • Nietszche — will to power; the Uberman
  • Richard Hofstadter — The Paranoid Style
  • George Lakoff — moral framing; strict father morality
  • Neil Postman — Entertaining Ourselves to Death
  • Anti-Intellectualism
  • Can be disguised as hyper-rationalism (Communism)
  • More authoritarianism books
Continue reading Hyper Partisanship: How to understand American political polarization
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strict father morality

Strict Father Morality is a term coined by cognitive linguist George Lakoff to describe a type of moral worldview that centers on the values of authority, discipline, and individual responsibility. This worldview is often associated with conservative political and social positions, and is often contrasted with a more nurturing and empathetic worldview that Lakoff refers to as the “Nurturant Parent” model — more closely aligned to a liberal and progressive worldview.

At the core of the Strict Father Morality worldview is the belief that the world is a fundamentally dangerous and competitive place, and that individuals must be prepared to compete and succeed in order to survive and thrive. In this worldview, the father is seen as the ultimate authority figure, responsible for providing for and protecting his family, and for instilling the discipline and self-control necessary for success in life.

Strict Father Morality -- a moral philosophy concept by Georg eLakoff

This patriarchal worldview is rooted in a traditional understanding of gender roles, where men are seen as the primary breadwinners and protectors, while women are seen as nurturing caregivers. This gendered division of labor is seen as necessary for the survival and flourishing of the family unit, and deviations from traditional gender roles are often viewed with suspicion or even hostility.

Christianity and Strict Father Morality

Central to the Strict Father Morality worldview is the idea that success is the result of hard work, self-discipline, and personal responsibility. Those who succeed in life are seen as having earned their success through their own efforts, while those who struggle or fail are seen as having brought it upon themselves through a lack of discipline or effort. This ideology is a derivative of the Protestant work ethic identified by sociologist Max Weber as one of the core animating worldviews behind fervent belief in capitalism.

Emerging out of Calvinism, the Protestant work ethic extends the idea that constant economic activity can show evidence of one’s eternal salvation. The emphasis on self-blame for one’s low economic condition is often used to justify policies that limit government intervention in areas such as healthcare, education, and social welfare.

the Protestant work ethic drove society to justify sending children to work in dangerous factories

Black and white thinking and Strict Father Morality

Another important aspect of Strict Father Morality is the belief in moral absolutes and the importance of maintaining a strong moral code. This includes a belief in the importance of law and order, and the need to punish those who break the law. In this worldview, moral relativism is seen as a dangerous threat to the stability and order of society, and the preservation of traditional values is seen as essential to maintaining social cohesion and stability.

Critics of Strict Father Morality argue that it is overly simplistic and ignores the complexity of human experience. They argue that the overemphasis on blaming individuals for their circumstances is a form of victim blaming, and can encourage a lack of empathy for those who face systemic barriers to success. They note the similarity of the entire ideology to a type of black and white thinking, and also argue that the traditional gender roles and emphasis on hierarchy and authority can lead to authoritarianism and intolerance.

traditional gender roles, by Midjourney

Strict Father Morality is also seen as being aligned with sexism, racism, and bigotry in general. It’s associated with ideas long ago debunked, dispelled, or defeated as poor ways of viewing and interacting with the world — due to basic inaccuracy.

In summary, Strict Father Morality is a moral worldview that emphasizes the values of authority, hierarchy, discipline, and limited government involvement, and is rooted in a traditional understanding of gender roles and moral absolutes. While this worldview can provide a sense of security and stability, it has been criticized for its oversimplification of human experience and its potential to usher in authoritarianism and glorify intolerance.

Related:

Black and White Thinking ↗

Black and white thinking is the tendency to see things in extremes, and to view the world through a very polarized lens.

Christian Nationalism

Christian nationalism is the belief in, and attempt to bring about, Christianity as the state religion in America — including the imposition of Biblical Law.

Bob Altemeyer The Authoritarians, a Summary ↗

Professor Altemeyer has studied authoritarianism and the authoritarian personality since 1966.

Read more

The Stanford Prison Experiment is a seminal study in the field of social psychology, offering profound insights into the dynamics of power, authority, and human behavior. Conducted in 1971 by psychologist Philip Zimbardo, the experiment aimed to investigate the psychological effects of perceived power and authority within a simulated prison environment. Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment set the stage for deeper explorations of the ways in which individualist doctrines of western nations tend to overweight the role of the individual (dispensational attribution) while underweighting the role in the situation and social milieu of the setting.

The Experiment Setup

Zimbardo and his team transformed the basement of Stanford University’s psychology building into a mock prison. Participants, who were college students, were randomly assigned roles as either “guards” or “prisoners.” The guards were given uniforms, sunglasses to prevent eye contact, and batons, while the prisoners were stripped of personal identity, referred to by numbers, and subjected to various forms of psychological manipulation and humiliation designed to dehumanize them in the eyes of their faux captors.

Zimbardo's Stanford Prison Experiment, by Midjourney

The Unfolding

The Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment was initially planned to last two weeks but had to be terminated after just six days due to the extreme and disturbing behavior exhibited by the participants. The guards became increasingly sadistic, employing psychological torture techniques, and the prisoners showed signs of extreme stress, depression, and helplessness. The environment became so toxic that some prisoners had to be released early due to emotional breakdowns.

Ethical Concerns

The study has been widely criticized for its ethical shortcomings. Zimbardo himself acted as the “prison superintendent,” and his failure to intervene has been seen as a significant ethical lapse (he shares this sentiment, and has been vocal about examining his own role in the profoundly disturbing results of his experiment). The lack of informed consent and the emotional and psychological harm caused to the participants have also been points of contention in the academic community.

Before this study, though, I think it was counterintuitive to assume that otherwise decent, law-abiding good people could be turned into snarling sadists so quickly, in the right circumstances. And the reality of that truth disturbs us and the field of social psychology to this day.

Social Psychological Learnings

Despite its ethical issues, the Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment offers invaluable insights into human behavior and social psychology:

  • Deindividuation: The guards’ uniforms and sunglasses served to deindividuate them, making it easier for them to engage in cruel behavior without feeling personally responsible.
  • Social Roles and Conformity: Both guards and prisoners conformed to their assigned roles to a disturbing extent, highlighting the power of social roles in shaping behavior.
conformity, by Midjourney
  • Authority and Obedience: The experiment showed how ordinary people could commit atrocious acts when they perceive themselves to be following authoritative commands.
  • Situational vs. Dispositional Factors: The study emphasized the influence of situational factors over dispositional ones in determining behavior. It argued that the environment could significantly impact how individuals act, as opposed to inherent personality traits.
  • Ethical Considerations in Research: The study serves as a cautionary tale for ethical considerations in psychological experiments, leading to stricter guidelines and review boards for research involving human subjects.

Implications and Legacy

The Zimbardo Stanford Prison Experiment has had a lasting impact on psychology, ethics, and our understanding of human behavior. It has been cited in various contexts, from understanding the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison to corporate misconduct a la Enron, et al. While the study’s ethical lapses have led to ongoing debates, its findings remain a crucial part of social psychology curricula and continue to inform our understanding of the human psyche.

Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment serves as both a revealing exploration of the dark corners of human behavior and a cautionary tale for ethical conduct in scientific research. It provides a complex, multifaceted look into the social psychological mechanisms that can lead ordinary people to commit extraordinary acts of cruelty or submission.

Read more

authoritarians gather for a witch hunt

Many people around the world were shocked in the aftermath of World War II. How could “polite” society break down so utterly, so swiftly, and so zealously? Why did authoritarian personality traits come to dominate human affairs, seemingly out of nowhere? How thin is this veneer of civilization, really?

The authoritarian personality is characterized by excessive strictness and a propensity to exhibit oppressive behavior towards perceived subordinates. On the flip side, they treat authority figures with mindless obedience and unquestioning compliance. They also have an aversion to difference, ambiguity, complexity, and diversity.

How did they get this way? Are people born with authoritarian personalities, or is the authoritarian “made” predominately by circumstance?

Authoritarian personality studies

A braintrust of scholars, public servants, authors, psychologists, and others have been analyzing these questions ever since. Some of the most prominent thinkers on the subject of authoritarianism were either themselves affected by the Nazi regime, or lived through the war in some capacity. Other more recent contributions have built on those original foundations, refining and extending them as more new history continues to unfold with right-wing behavior to observe.

Continue reading Essential thinkers on authoritarian personality theory
Read more

Top Mental Models for Thinkers

Mental models are different ways of mapping or viewing a system or a problem. They are frameworks that help explain what’s going on, and predict what’s likely to happen next.

Model thinking is an excellent way of improving our cognition and decision making abilities. Thinking in models helps us understand how new concepts fit with older observations, and what theories and metaphors are likely to endure.

They are useful in strategy, decision-making, analysis, planning, and a broad range of applications in both our personal and professional lives. It’s a good investment to spend time learning models — which are most typically extensible outside their original field of interest.

Often more than one model can apply to a situation or problem. Models are useful for picturing the issue in a different way, through a different lens — and perhaps to see something before unseen. They can help us try out different scenarios with ideas or personas.

Top Models and Concepts

We all have learnings in our lives we consider more precious than others — explanations and predictions that endure and keep on giving, versus those that fade away. Our core models form the backbone of our thinking and decision-making throughout our lives; it’s our grab bag of problem solving tools — and we want to have a resilient Swiss Army Knife at the ready at all times. These mental models help us understand a complex world, and prepare for all the changes that are inevitably ahead.

This set of top models below is my personal “desert island” set of model thinking concepts. These are the ones I really wouldn’t want to be caught dead leaving the house without.

Once these are on lock, head over to the unabridged models section for more model thinking goodness!

I will continue to add to this list over time as well as fill in the number of holes that remain in the set. Learning about new mental models is one of my favorite activities — it’s the closest thing to a superpower I can think of.

TermTypeTopicDefinition
80/20 ruleModelEconomicsAlso known as a power law, or the Pareto Principle
absolute advantageTermEconomicsThe ability of a party to produce a product or service more efficiently than any of its competitors.
absolute valueTermMathThe value of a function irrespective of its sign (positive or negative). Its distance from zero, expressed as a positive.
accessibilityTermPsychologyHow easy something is to call to mind
acquittalLegal precedentLawA judgment of not guilty in a criminal trial
activation energyTermScienceA chemistry term that describes the minimum energy required for a chemical system to react; the amount of energy required to get two or more compounds to react.
adverse selectionTermEconomicsInsurance phenomenon in which buyers or sellers in a transaction can use insider knowledge to unfairly get a better advantage over the other party or parties
a fortioriLogicLogicFrom the Latin, "from a stronger argument," the phrase refers to conclusions for which there is stronger evidence than a previously accepted one.
akrasiaTermPsychologyA state of mind where someone acts against their own better judgment due to weakness of will.
alea iacta estMetaphorMetaphorIn Latin, "the die is cast" -- attributed to Julius Caesar as he crossed the river Rubicon, leading an attack on Rome: a metaphor for a point of no return.
allocationMethodEconomicsDistributing resources, assets, or funds amongs recipients.
"All the world's a stage“MetaphorArtsShakespearean metaphor likening culture to a theatrical performance: "And all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances ..." —William Shakespeare, As You Like It
Amara's LawTheoryScienceWe tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
annuityTermEconomicsA series of regular payments at equal intervals.
antifragilityModelEconomicsThings that can benefit from disorder, and grow stronger amidst chaos. When something grows stronger under stress; when there is more upside to downside of experiencing a shock to the system.
antimatterTheoryScienceAntimatter particles are the precise opposite charge and spin from their matter counterparts, but identical otherwise.
appreciationModelEconomicsThe tendency of an asset to appreciate, or grow, with value over time.
a prioriLogicPhilosophyInformation deduced from logical precedents versus empirical observation.
arbitrageModelEconomicsA method of turning profit via simultaneous purchase and sale of the same assets in different markets, benefiting from the differences in listed price in various geographical regions.
archetypesSymbolPhilosophyAn ideal type; a model after which others are fashioned.
arrow of timeTheoryScienceTheory of physics stating an asymmetry of time -- that time has a one-way direction in which the entropy of the universe is only increasing. Although human beings perceive the past as being different from the future -- and that we remember the past, but not the future -- intrinsically there is nothing in the structure of the universe that defines past from future. Time is instead an emergent feature.
artificia docuit famesAncient WisdomPhilosophyLatin saying meaning, "sophistication is born out of hunger" -- a metaphor for innovation and genius being awakened by challenge, difficulty, and constraints.
ASCIITermTechnologyAmerican Standard Code for Information Interchange: a standard character translation table used by computers to convert numerical representations into printable characters.
asking a fish about waterMetaphorMetaphorThere are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”
assetTermEconomicsA valuable object or good.
astroturfingMethodPoliticsThe deceptive political practice of paying operatives to pose as members of the public engaging in "grassroots protest" as a way of adding plausible deniability as well as amplification of their point of view.
asymmetric encryptionTermComputer ScienceAlso known as public-key cryptography, asymmetric encryption encrypts and decrypts the data using two separate keys that are related mathematically (a public and a private key).
asymptoteTermMathThe graph of a curve as it is approaching a numerical value or limit, but never quite reaching it.
autophagyExperimental findingBiology, MedicineThe body's way of cleaning out damaged cells and replace them with newer, healthier cells. Literally, "self-eating."
availability biasModelPsychologyCognitive distortion arising from the unconscious preference for information that is recent rather than what is representative.
averageMethodMathA measure of central tendency of a set of data, whether the mean, media, or mode.
balance sheetMethodEconomicsA financial document showing the book value of a company, i.e. how much it's worth.
balancing loopModelSystems theoryA balancing loop attempts to move a current state (the way things are) to a desired state (goal or objective) though an action (thing(s) done to reach the goal).The balancing loop is one of the two foundational structures of systems thinking, along with the Reinforcing Loop. A balancing loop is representative of any situation where there is a goal or an objective and action is taken to achieve that goal or objective.
Baldwin EffectModelScienceAs organisms learn to shape their environment, they can alter the path of evolution. For example, with the advent of dairy farming, selection pressures began favoring lactose absorption genes in humans.
bank reservesTermEconomicsCash minimums banks must have on hand to meet regulatory requirements ensuring the financial system is equipped to handle periodic shocks in demand for withdrawals.
bank runTermEconomicsEconomic term for when a large group of bank depositors withdraw their money all at once -- once a common occurrence that rarely happens anymore in the modern world.
base conversionMathMathThe base is how many numbers there are in a number system; we use base 10 primarily, and computers use base 2, aka binary. Base conversion is the method of converting numbers from one base system to another.
Base Rate FallacyModelPsychologyA type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the general prevalence of something in favor of specific anecdotes.
base weightingMathStatistics
Bayes' TheoremMethodMathA mathematical method of determining the updated probability of a certain event or case, given new information.
bend the kneeMetaphorSocial psychologyGive up one's own opinion and swear fealty to a higher authority.
betaMethodEconomicsIn finance, a term that refers to investments tracking the broad market performance of an exchange or industry sector
The Big BangModelScienceThe massive explosion which spawned our entire universe, back at the beginning of time.
The Big CrunchModelScience
binary numbersMathMath
binomial distributionMathStatistics
Binomial TheoremTheoryMath
black holeTheoryScience
Black-Scholes modelModelEconomics
Black SwanModelEconomicsA highly improbable and unexpected event -- which yet occurs with more frequency than one might generally assume.
blockchainTermTechnologyThe basis of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology is a kind of public ledger or shared database that records transactions transparently and out in the open, in a way that anyone can access or verify.
boiling frogMetaphorPhilosophyA metaphor for the common occurence of slow, gradual changes over time not being noticed, like the (contested) legend of a scienfitic experiment that boiling a frog alive by starting with tepid water and slowly turning up the temperature.
bondMethodEconomics
Boyle's LawScientific LawScienceA scientific law that describes the relationship between the pressure and the volume of a confined gas.
boundary objectTheoryTechnologyInformation science concept describing information used in different ways, by different communities, for collaborative work through scales.
bounded rationalityExperimental findingPsychologyA central challenge to the c. 1776 ideas of Adam Smith regarding the Invisible Hand of markets, this 20th c. psychological theory posits that rather than making optimized rational decisions, at most times the average person is "satisficing" or making the most expedient choice under considerable constraints and lack of available information
bricolageMethodArtsCombination of many types and forms into one piece; a pastiche or mashup of style and cultural referents
broken windows theoryTheoryLaw
Butterfly EffectModelScience
bystander effectExperimental findingPsychology
cadenceTermArts
camel's noseMetaphorPhilosophya metaphor describing how allowing a smaller innocuous act may lead to larger acts that are undesirable
capital gainsTermEconomicsMoney that is earned as a result of a stock investment appreciating in value — the capital "gains in value"
capital requirementsEconomicsActual cash on hand for banks to theoretically offer at a given time, with the rest lended out as leverage
carbon-14Scientific LawScience
carbon datingMethodScienceA way to scientifically determine the age of an organic object by radioactive decay.
carpe diemAncient WisdomPhilosophyIn Latin, "seize the day" -- a reference often used to motivate oneself and others to act boldly and live vigorously in the moment.
cartelEconomics
catalystModelScience
categorical dataMath
causa-sui projectTheoryPsychology
cause and effectModel
caveat emptorAncient WisdomStrategy"Beware, the buyer" in Latin -- a reference to a warning about what one is getting into.
cellular automataMath
Central Limit TheoremMathStatisticsIn probability theory, the CLT establishes that independent random variables when measured will tend towards the normal distribution.
central tendencyMathStatisticsA measure of the midpoint of a data set; includes mean, median, and mode.
ceteris paribusMethodEconomics"All other things being equal"; holding the effects of other variables constant to determine the effects on a single variable of interest.
charge preservationScience
charlatanPsychologyone who aspires to wealth &/or fame through trickery and deception
Chesterton's FenceModelMetaphor
chilling effectTermHistoryThe inhibition of one's legitimate exercise of natural and legal rights by threat of legal sanction.
cognitive biasExperimental findingPsychology
collapseModelSystems theory
comparative advantageEconomics
composite eventsStatisticsin probability
compound interestModelEconomics
conditionalsMath
Condorcet Jury TheoremMathStatistics
confidence intervalStatisticsthe range of values over which a predicted outcome may lie; the amount of certainty one has about the predicted value falling within the estimated range
confirmation biasExperimental findingPsychology
conflationPsychology
consent of the governedPhilosophyPoliticsConcept of political philosophy in which a government's legitimacy and right to use state power is only justified if consented to by the people over whom said power is wielded.
consequentialismPhilosophy
conservation of energyScientific LawChemistryIn a closed system, total energy remains constant.
conservation of massScientific LawPhysicsIn a closed system, mass remains constant.
conservation of momentumScientific LawPhysicsIn a closed system, momentum remains constant.
constraintsMath
Consumer Sentiment IndexEconomics
continuous vs. discrete variablesStatistics
Copernican theory of the solar systemScientific LawScience
correlationStatistics
correlation coefficientStatistics
correlation is not causationScientific LawStatistics
cosineMathMath
counterfactual
countervailing powerEconomicsEconomist John Kenneth Galbraith's concept for how collective worker power is needed to balance against growing corporatism in the economy.
creative destructionModelEconomicsEconomist Joseph Shumpeter's idea for how the business cycle works: by innovation disrupting established processes and industries and forcing change into markets, often destructively and swiftly.
credo quia absurdum"I believe because it is absurd" — Tertullian's defense of belief in the miracles attributed to Christ
critical massScience
crossing the RubiconMetaphorHistoryMaking a decision from which there is no turning back; a reference to Julius Caesar's overthrow of the Roman republic to found the Roman Empire in 49 BCE.
cross-sectional dataMath
crowdfundingEconomics
crowdsourcingMethodSystems theory
cryptocurrencyEconomics
Dark MatterTheoryScience
dead hand of the pastPhilosophyHistoryProblem inherent in constitutional political philosophy, where eventually a people becomes ruled by "masters" no longer alive, who rule by "fiat" via a document, from beyond the grave (Thomas Jefferson's concept)
death spiral
decision theorySystems theory
decision treeMethodComputer Science
de minimisLegal precedentLaw
depreciationMethodEconomics
derivativesMath
diminshing marginal utility (DMU)ModelEconomics
directory structureComputers
dispersionMathStatisticsthe amount of variation within a set of data; how spread out the data points are from each other
distributionsMathStatistics
divergent thinkingPsychology
diversityExperimental findingScience
Diversity Prediction Theorem
dividend paymentsMethodEconomicsPeriodic, usually quarterly, payouts to stockholders of the company when posting profits. Along with capital gains, one of the 2 primary reasons to invest in stocks.
Dodd-Frank Act of 2010Legal precedentEconomicsdefinitive financial regulation of the financial industry following the 2007-8 financial crisis
domain dependence
Doppler EffectScientific LawPhysics
double helix
doxaSocial psychologycommon belief or opinion
Drake EquationModelScienceEstimation of the number of technological civilizations that might exist in the universe.
dualismPhilosophy
Dunbar numberTheoryPsychology
Dunning-Kruger EffectExperimental findingPsychologyA cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as higher than it actually is, because they cannot recognize their incompetence in comparison to others.
Duverger's LawModelPoliticsHolds that plurality-rule elections within single member districts — such as the structure found in the U.S. — tend to favor two-party systems
Easterlin paradoxExperimental findingEconomicsBeyond a certain point, countries don't get happier as they get richer.
economies of scaleEconomics
edge caseMetaphorScience
elasticity; price elasticityModelEconomicsThe ability of pricing mechanisms to respond quickly or less quickly to changes in prevailing conditions.
elasticity of demandModelEconomics
elasticity of supplyModelEconomics
electromagnetic spectrumScientific LawScience
electron cloudModelScienceRefers to the true nature of an electron's existence around an atom, wherein its location in space is not a definite point, but a fuzzy region of probable occurence.
elephants and fliesMetaphorEconomicsSales concept to quickly segment leads into size buckets, from elephants > deers > rabbits > mice > flies.
elephant and riderModelPsychologyPsychological idea about how our unconscious and semi-conscious desires dominate us, but can be directed by reason (Jonathan Haidt et al)
embargoLegal precedentEconomics
Emperor's New ClothesMetaphorGovernment
encryptionMath
ensemble learningMethodTechnology
entropyScientific LawScienceThe disorder of a system increases over time.
epistemologyPhilosophy
e pluribus unumSymbolPoliticsLatin: "one out of many" — one of several phrases on the American dollar bill, it refers to the unity of the nation as made up of its many peoples and as such, signifies the republic.
equality under lawLegal precedentPoliticsAn ancient principle of vital importance to almost every constitution in the world, stating that all people should be treated equally in the eyes of the law, and that all individuals are subject to the same set of laws
equilibriumScienceA resting condition all systems seek, in which all competing inflows and outflows are in balance.
equityEconomics
equity crowdfundingEconomics
error-embracingPsychology
event horizonScientific LawPhysicsA boundary beyond which events cannot affect on observer, such as the edge of a black hole.
evolutionScientific LawScience
exception handlingMethodComputer ScienceThe process of responding to the occurrence of exceptions -- unexpected conditions that throw the application into an error state and must be resolved before continuing.
exchange ratesEconomicsThe value of one country's currency as measured against another
existentialismPhilosophy
exit strategyMethodEconomics
externalitiesEconomics
extrapolationStatistics
factorialMath
factum tacendo, crimen facias acriusPhilosophyHe who does not stop a crime is an accomplice.
fact /value problemPhilosophy
fake newsMedia
false negativesLogicScience
false positivesLogicScience
false consensus effectExperimental findingSocial psychology
falsifiabilityLogicScienceAbility to be proven untrue; a requirement for a theory to be called scientific.
Feynman TechniqueMethodScienceA method of learning and remembering difficult concepts by simplifying them until you can explain it to a new student or layperson who knows nothing about that concept.
fiat moneyEconomics
fiduciary dutyLegal precedentEconomics
fifth columnModelPoliticsA group who unites in secret to undermine a larger group from within.
file systemMetaphorComputer Science
filter bubbleMetaphorSocial psychology
first mover advantageExperimental findingStrategy
first principlesAncient WisdomPhilosophy
fishing expeditionMetaphor
fitness functionTermScienceIn AI, refers to a set of selection criteria applied to a set of potential solutions to a problem to allow only the better candidates to survive to the next generation.
flâneurTermArts
force multiplierModelScience
fractalsMathComputer Science
fractional lendingMethodEconomicsFractional reserve banking is the traditional way of doing business, in which banks loan out multiples of the assets they actually have on hand. This falls apart if there is ever a run on the bank, when every client demands their money back at the same time.
fractionsTermMath
fragilityPhilosophy
framingPsychology
free tradeMethodEconomics
free willPhilosophyPhilosophy
freshwater vs. saltwater economistsEconomics
Friend of the Court filingLaw
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt)Social psychology
fundamental attribution errorExperimental findingPsychology
future valueEconomics
gainTermArtsIn audio recording, a control that allows more or less of the source sound into the channel being recorded.
game theoryMath
Gates' LawTheoryPhilosophyThe idea that software development speed halves every 18 months, negating the acceleratory effects of Moore's Law and preventing computing from leaping greatly forward.
Gaussian distributionTermStatisticsthe Normal distribution
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)ModelEconomicsThe sum of all public and private goods produced within a given period; a measure of a country's economic health.
general relativityTheoryScience
general willModelGovernment
generalists and specialistsPhilosophy
genetic algorithmsScienceAn approach to AI based on evolutionary models, in which multiple candidate solutions to a problem are generated randomly by mutation and recombination, then iterated over thousands of generations through fitness functions to weed out the best of each generation.
germ theory of diseaseScientific Law
Gettier problemPhilosophy
gilding the lillyMetaphorArtsSpeaking so floridly of a subject that one actually tarnishes its natural beauty.
GOFAITechnology"Good Old-Fashioned Artificial Intelligence" — reference to the style and general algorithmic approach of early artificial intelligence work, which fell out of popularity over the decades in favor of more organic neural net and evolutionary approaches.
Golden calf
Golden MeanAncient WisdomPhilosophyAristotelian theory of an ideal balance point between the many extremes we face in life; he advocated harmony between the various spheres of life for an experience of happiness.
Golden RuleAncient WisdomCulture"Do unto others, as you would have them do unto you" is the essence of this ancient wisdom, often used as a shorthand version of Jesus's core teaching.
Goldilocks ZoneModel
gold standardLegal precedentEconomics
gravityScientific LawScience
gravity wavesPhysics
habeas corpusLegal precedentLaw
habitusTheorySocial psychology
Hanlon's RazorModelPhilosophynever attribute to malice what is adequately described by carelessness
hard determinismPhilosophy
harmonicsArts
hearts and mindsPolitics
hedge fundsEconomics
hedonismPhilosophyPhilosophy
Heisenberg Uncertainty PrincipleTheoryScience
hexadecimal numbersTermMathbase 6
heuristicsModelPsychologyMental shortcuts that we do as a matter of routine, especially when we're stressed or under other types of cognitive constraints.
hormesisScienceWhen a small dose of a toxic substance is actually beneficial to the living thing that ingests it
hydraMetaphor
iatrogenicsHealthharm done by the healer
ice core datingMethodScience
id, ego, superegoModelPsychologyFreud's psychological model of the conscious and unconscious mind.
implicit costEconomics
Imposter SyndromeModelPsychologyA psychological pattern in which one doubts their own accomplishments and has a generalized fear of being exposed as a fraud.
index number; indexingStatistics
inferior goodsEconomics
inflationModelEconomics
inflection pointMathThe point of a curve at which a change in the direction of the curve occurs.
intellectual propertyLegal precedentEconomicsIP
interestModelEconomics
interest rateEconomics
internal rate of return (IRR)Economics
Internet of Things (IoT)TermTechnology
intersectionMath
interventionismSocial psychology
Invisible HandTheoryEconomics
IP addressesTermTechnology
iron law of oligarchyTheoryPoliticsPolitical theory positing that no matter how democratic a group may start out, over time it will develop into a bureaucracy ruled by a small handful.
It from BitTheoryPhysicsJohn Wheeler's theory about the fundamental informational nature of the universe
Keynesian economicsTheoryEconomics
Keynesian PutModelEconomics
keystone
Kronos EffectModelEconomicsthe tendency of a successful corporation to seek to acquire and/or drive its upstart competitors out of business
Laffer CurveTheoryEconomics
law of excluded middle
Law of Large NumbersScientific LawMathAs the number of coin tosses approaches infinity, the number of heads encountered will converge on 0.5; helpful in calculations of probability.
least-barricaded gateMetaphorPoliticsTrotsky's metaphor of how social revolutions can take hold more easily in already weakened societies.
lecturing birds how to flyMetaphorMetaphor
length contractionModelPhysics
less is morePhilosophyMetaphor
L'etat c'est moiPhilosophyPolitics"I am the state“
leverageEconomics
lifeboat ethicsPhilosophyPhilosophy
light-weight processComputer Science
limit of a functionTermMath if the graph of an equation seems to approach a numerical value but never quite reaches it, we say that number is the limit of the function (approaching from the negative or positive direction; sometimes directionality is important)
limiting factorModelSystems Theory
linear regressionMethodMath
liquidityEconomics
local minModelSystems Theoryidea that to grow out of a stasis or plateau, you likely have to endure a period of "setback" that is a lower dip or minimum value from where you are now, but is what's required to get over the activation energy to reach the next level
locus of control
logarithmMath
logical fallaciesPhilosophy
long tailModelMathIn a power law distribution (of population, ages, items, etc.), the region of the graph that tapers off quickly after the initial segment of high data points
loss aversionExperimental findingPsychology
Lost EinsteinsTheoryCulturehttp://doctorparadox.net/models/lost-einsteins/
loyalists and mercenariesMetaphorSystems Theory
maker's time and manager's timeModelSystems Theory
M1Economics
M2Economics
mandalaAncient WisdomReligionIntrocate and elaborate patterns created with colored sand by Buddhist monks, who blow away their creations at the end to signify their celebration of impermanence.
ManichaeanAncient WisdomPhilosophya narrowly-defined dualistic worldview of good against evil
man on horsebackMetaphorSynonym for a demagogue. Comes from French general Georges Ernest Boulanger, and refers to a military leader who presents himself as the savior of the country during a crisis and either assumes or threatens to assume dictatorial powers.
map is not the territoryMetaphorMetaphorA phrase reminding us that our mental picture of a thing is not the same as the actual thing itself
margin of errorMathStatisticsHow much uncertainty there is in the results; a percentage the estimate may be bounded by.
marginal benefitEconomics
marginal costEconomics
marginal returnsEconomics
marginal utilityEconomics
market shareEconomics
Markov chainTermMath
Maslow's Hierarchy of needsModelPsychology
meanMathStatisticsThe average value of the numbers in a data set; take the sum of all values and divide by the total number of values in the set.
medianMathStatisticsLike mean, another way to describe the central tendency of a data set.
Median Voter TheoremTheoryPolitics
megalopsychonPhilosophyPhilosophyConcept in Aristotelian ethics of living with grandeur and taking risks with dignity; being nonsmall
mens reaLegal precedentLaw"guilty mind" — establishing the intent of a perp can help to establish criminal liability
mercantilismTheoryEconomics
meritocracyModelSystems Theory
metaphysicsPhilosophyPhilosophy
mirror neuronsExperimental findingScience
modeMathStatisticsThe frequency with which each data point exists in the set.
monopolyModelEconomicsMarket condition in which there exists only one seller of a resource.
monopsonyModelEconomicsMarket condition in which there exists only one buyer of a resource.
Moore's LawTheoryTechnologyNamed after Gordon Moore, the model predicts the doubling of transistors on a circuit of equivalent size every 18 months to 2 years. This has many consequences for both technology and economics, including the predictable drop in price of generating the same amount of computing power each period.
moral hazardModelEconomicswhen one party takes on additional risk, knowing that other parties will bear the brunt of the risk in event of a loss
Moravec's Paradox
MVP (minimum viable product)TermEconomics
naive cynicismPsychologyState of mind in which people believe others to have more egocentric bias than is warranted or is actually the case.
Narcissus & EchoAncient WisdomMetaphor
Nash EquilibriumTheoryMath
nasty, brutish, and shortTheoryPhilosophy
natural lawsScience
natural selectionScientific LawScience
necessity is the mother of inventionCommon WisdomCulture
negative externalitiesModelEconomics
negative interest ratesMethodEconomics
neomaniaExperimental findingSocial psychologylove of the modern for its own sake
neural netTermTechnology
net present value (NPV)ModelEconomics
neuroplasticityExperimental findingScience
Newton's first lawScientific LawScienceAn object in motion will tend to stay in motion, unless acted upon by a force.
Newton's second lawScientific LawScienceF = ma, or an object of mass m feeling a force F will tend to accelerate by an amount a.
Newton's third lawScientific LawScienceWhen 2 objects interact, they each apply force on the other in equal amounts magnitude, in the opposite direction.
nodesTermMath
noosphereThought ExperimentData scienceSphere of human thought — all interacting minds on earth. An early 1900s concept from Teilhard de Chardin
nominal figuresEconomics
nonlinearityMath
Normal distributionScientific LawMath
normal goodsEconomics
normalized weighted averageStatistics
normative and descriptivePhilosophy
noumenaPhilosophy
novus ordo seclorumSymbolGovernmentA new order for the ages; Latin phrase seen on the American dollar bill.
null hypothesisMethodScience
observer effectExperimental findingScience
Occam's RazorTheoryPhilosophyA philosophical rule of thumb that favors the simplest explanation. Also known as the "law of parsimony."
octal numbersMathComputer Sciencebase 8
oligopolyTermEconomics
omphalosPolitics
opportunity costModelEconomicsWhat you miss out on by using a resource in a certain way -- what you would have done with the resource otherwise; what alternative use you would have put it to.
optionsEconomics
orders of magnitudeScientific LawMath
ordinally ranked dataStatistics
organizational debtEconomics
oscillationsScience
out-group biasExperimental findingSocial psychology
outlierModelMathData points that fall well outside of the normal distribution or expected distribution of a data set.
paradoxModelLogicA self-contradicting statement or logically impossible event.
paragonModelCultureA standard against which something can be judged — an exemplar example of a thing
Pareto PrincipleExperimental findingEconomicsAnother term for the 80/20 Rule
path dependentMathComputer Science
Pavlovian responseExperimental findingScience
pax RomanaLegal precedentHistory
pearls before swineMetaphorCultureThe sense of wasting one's efforts for people who don't really appreciate them.
P/E RatioMethodEconomicsPrice to earnings ratio: standard measure of relative stock performance
permutationsMathComputer Science
Peter PrincipleTheorySystems TheoryTheory that individuals within corporate and other organizational hierarchies will rise to the highest level at which they become incompetent in their job duties.
phase shiftScientific LawScienceThe ability of matter to change phases, most famously water from liquid to ice to vapor and back again.
philosopher kingsAncient Wisdom
Philosopher's StoneUnsolved Mystery
phonemesExperimental finding
plant a seedMetaphor
Platonic formsModel
PlatonicityPhilosophyadherence to crisp abstract theory & forms that blind us to the mess of actual reality
Plato's CaveModelPhilosophyAllegory in Plato's Republic about a cave dweller whose only picture of reality is the shadow on the cave wall thrown by the fire.
pluralismGovernment
point of no returnMetaphorCulture
pollingMethodStatistics
Pollyanna PrincipleModelPsychologyThe tendency for people to remember pleasant events more accurately than unpleasant ones.
populismGovernment
positronScientific LawPhysicsan antimatter electron
Potemkin Village EffectModelSystems TheoryTendency of systems to create the appearance of functioning normally — to appease the operators who wish it so — even when they are not.
precisionMath
present valueEconomicsThe expected current value of an income stream.
price ceilingEconomics
price floorEconomics
prima facie
principle of indifferenceStatisticsIn probability, when there is no basis to choose some outcomes as more likely than others, they are given equal weight (1/2 chance of a particular side of a coin, 1/52 to get a particular card from a deck, etc.).
Prisoner's DilemmaThought ExperimentMath
private equity (PE)MethodEconomics
probabilityMath
probability distributionMathStatistics
Procrustean bedAncient WisdomPhilosophySynonymous with ruthlessly enforcing conformity, the phrase comes from a Greek tale of extreme "form fitting" on the part of Poseidon's son Procrustes, a robber who is said to have attacked victims by cutting off men's legs or stretching them on racks accordingly to fit an iron bed size.
profitLegal precedentEconomics
propagandaMethodSocial psychologyoriginally, a way to "propagate" any idea; used by both sides in WWI, it thereafter took on a sinister connotation when American & British citizens felt hoodwinked by their govt's use of it
proper framePhysicsin physics, the frame of reference that accelerates with you and determines your age
proportionalityModelMath
prospect theoryPsychology
proximate causeLogic
proxy warTermPolitics
pseudoscienceMethodCulture
PTSDPsychology
punctuated equilibriumModelScience
putting legs on a snakeMetaphor
Pygmalian EffectSocial psychology
Pyrrhic victoryMetaphorHistoryA victory in which the costs of winning far outweigh the rewards.
quantum computingMethodComputer Science
quantum entanglementTheoryPhysics
quantum physicsScience
qubitScience
quid pro quoLegal precedentLaw
quota
r > qModelEconomicsThomas Piketty's elegant demonstration of the rise of inequality
random walksMath
rangeStatisticsIn a set of numbers, the difference between the highest value and the lowest value in the data set.
rara avisAncient WisdomCulture"Rare bird" in Latin; similar to an outlier. Someone who stands out.
rate of returnEconomics
ReagonomicsEconomics
realismPhilosophy
reality testingModelPsychologyDiscerning the difference between inner and outer, and seeing events as they really are, and not just what we want them to be.
received wisdomAncient WisdomReligion
recursionMethodMath
red shiftScientific LawScience
reductio ad absurdoAncient WisdomPhilosophyCollapsing things too far, in a way that destroys real significance.
reductio ad finemAncient WisdomPhilosophyTo analyze to the end — break the concept down into its conponent parts.
redundancyMethodSystems TheoryHaving multiple pathways within a system to accomplish the same task or achieve the same objective.
reference framePhysicsA frame that does not accelerate; also known as a Lorentz frame.
regnat populus
regression analysisMethodStatistics
reincarnationUnsolved MysteryReligion
reinforcing loopSystems theory
relativityTheoryPhysicsEinstein's central insight that the experience or perceived passage of time depends greatly on the conditions of the observer, particularly with respect to velocity and gravity
resilienceModelSystems TheoryAbility to bounce back into shape after having been pressed or stretched; elasticity. The ability to recover quickly.
respice finemAncient WisdomPhilosophy"Consider that you will die" — i.e. live life as you would in order to be proud of it by the time it's over.
res publicaAncient WisdomGovernmentpertaining to the state
retrodiction
revenueEconomics
ripple effectExperimental findingScience
riskLegal precedentEconomics
risk-weighted assets (RWAs)Economics
root causePhilosophy
Rosetta StoneExperimental findingHistoryMetaphorically, a key to unlocking the secrets of a given thing.
roundingMethodMath
rounding errorMath
rule of lawLegal precedentPhilosophy
run on the bank
samplingMethodStatistics
samsaraReligion
scarcityEconomics
Schelling's Tipping Model
Schrödinger's CatTheoryPhysics
search intentTermMedia
second-order thinking
selection biasExperimental findingPsychology
self-governancePhilosophy
set theoryMath
ship of TheseusAncient WisdomMetaphor
SIFIEconomicssystemically important financial institution; post-2008 financial crisis designation for banks deemed "too big to fail" (currently, firms holding more than $50b in assets)
sigmaStatisticsstandard deviation, named for the Greek letter denoting the statistical term
signal pathPhysics
significant figuresMathaka "sig figs"
simulationPhilosophy
sineMathPhysics
sine waveMathPhysics
Single point of failure (SPoF)TermComputer ScienceA part of a system that, when it fails, brings down the entire rest of the system or stops it from working properly
singularityTheoryScienceA black hole.
SIR modelModelSciencecontagious disease modelling based on possible patient states (susceptible, infected, recovered)
site navigationMethodComputer Science
six degrees of separationExperimental findingPsychology
six sigmaMethodStrategyMotorola-originated concept of ensuring quality control to a very fine point, by ensuring that parts or other production outputs are manufactured to be within a certain quality range up to 6 times the standard deviation.
situational preparednessMethodStrategy
skewMathStatistics
skin in the gameAncient WisdomEconomicsWhen someone has a stake in the outcome, they are more likely to keep their word in assist its fruition.
slope of a lineMathStatistics
social contractLegal precedentPhilosophyProfoundly impactful document in political philosophy from Jean Jacques Rousseau in 18th c. France, refuting the rights of monarchs to rule the people
Socratic methodMethodPhilosophyTechnique of instruction or conversation where the teacher or moderator proceeds by asking the student or pupil a serious of questions, enticing her or him to come up with their own answers to the issues related to the subject at hand.
solipsism
sortingMath
special relativityScientific LawScience
speech act theoryTheoryPhilosophyBritish philosopher J.L.Austin's concept that all uses of speech carry a performative aspect.
speed of light (c)Scientific LawScienceapprox. 300 million meters per second
spreadStatistics
squaring the circleUnsolved MysteryA notorious philosophical problem first posed by Plato, the phrase has come to be used to allude to the grandiosity and infeasibility of someone's plans.
standard deviationMathStatistics
standing wavesTerm
stare decisisLegal precedentLaw"It has been decided" — terminology used by a judge or court to indicate that the matter before them has already been decided by a previous ruling.
state of natureThought ExperimentPhilosophy
status quoTermCultureThe way things currently are.
stochastic terrorismTermSocial psychology
stocks and flowsModelSystems Theory
StoicismAncient WisdomPhilosophy
Streisand EffectMetaphorSocial psychologyWhen the act of attempting to hide information only makes it more prominently spread, especially via the Internet.
strict father moralityGeorge Lakoff's terminology to describe the conservative worldview.
strict liabilityLawCrimes which have no mens rea requirement, such as rear-ending of another vehicle (where it is always the rear-enders' fault no matter what the circumstances.
subsidyEconomics
success to the successfulSystems theoryA reinforcing loop within complex system — especially economies — wherein the spoils of victory include the means to alter the rules of the game further in the favor of the previous winners.
summum malumAncient WisdomPoliticsultimate evil — some posit cruelty as this ultimate evil
supply and demandModelEconomics
supply chainTermEconomics
sword of DamoclesAncient WisdomMetaphor
symmetric encryptionTerm
tabula rasaAncient WisdomMetaphorBlank slate
tachyonExperimental findingSciencehypothetical particle that travels faster than the speed of light
tangentMethodMath
tariffLegal precedentEconomics
tempus edax rerumAncient WisdomArts"Time devours everything." — Ovid
tempus fugitAncient WisdomTime flies
tempus neminem manetAncient Wisdomtime waits for no man
Third StoryThought ExperimentPhilosophythe story an impartial third-party observer might tell; a version of events any unbiased person could agree on
Thucydides Trap
tilting at windmillsMetaphorArtsA reference to the novel Don Quixote, denoting the ongoing pursuit of useless attacks against an implacable enemy. Ineffectual activity undertaken strenuously and loudly.
time dilationThought ExperimentScience
time series dataMethodStatisticsA collection of measurements taken over time that create a graph when plotted.
time value of moneyTheoryEconomics
tipping pointModelSystems Theory
Tit-for-TatMethodStrategy
too many cooks in the kitchenMetaphorCultureA metaphor connoting that too many people are currently involved in the decision-making process.
touchstoneMetaphorMyth/MetaphorA black stone once used to judge the purity of gold or silver — now signifying a standard against which something should be judged.
Tower of BabelMetaphorReligionA tale in the book of Genesis in the Bible that purports to explain the origins of different languages, via narrative about God confounding the speech of humans trying to build a tower to reach Him.
trade-offsModelEconomics
tragedy of the commonsExperimental findingEconomicsAn economic term for a situation in which unfettered access to a resource can lead to resource depletion through uncoordinated behavior -- a classic example is overfishing. A commonly-pooled (aka public) resource is overconsumed, but underinvested in.
transitivityTermMath
trickle down economicsMethodEconomicsRight-wing economics, also known as Reaganomics, supply side economics, fiscal conservatism, tax cut policy, and austerity.
trolly problemThought ExperimentPhilosophy
turtles all the way downTheoryPhilosophy
twin paradoxThought ExperimentScience
tyranny of choiceExperimental findingSystems TheoryThe paradoxical effect that having too many options to choose from actually decreases the likelihoof of being able to reach a decision at all.
UnicodeTermComputers
unionTermMathIn set theory, a union of sets is a set which consists of all the members of all the sets.
universal lawPhilosophyPhilosophy
usuryTermEconomicsThe act of charging interest on borrowed money; for thousands of years there have been religous proscriptions against lending money with interest in various societies.
utilityTheoryPhilosophy
varianceMathStatisticsThe amount of variation within a data set.
Veil of IgnoranceModelPhilosophyPhilosopher John Rawls' model for making better ethical decisions, in which the decider chooses a course of action based on the predicate that s/he will not know which of the groups or persons affected by the decision they personally would be. This method creates natural incentives to find the fairest outcome for all groups, since the decider doesn't know which group they will "end up in" on the other side of the decision.
Venn DiagramModelMath
via negativaMethodPhilosophyAn indirect description of a thing by describing what that thing is not.
Volcker ruleLegal precedentEconomicsFinancial rule preventing consumer lending banks from speculative trading in securities for their own profit.
vulnerabilityExperimental findingPsychology
wave functionScientific LawScience
wave-particle dualityExperimental findingScience
wheel of lifeSymbolReligion
when life gives you lemonsMetaphorPhilosophyYou try to make lemonade! Another way of saying, "let's try and make the best of this unfortunate situation."
winner-take-all marketEconomics
wisdom of crowdsModelSocial psychologyDerived from the Diversity Prediction Theorem: the average prediction of a group of individuals will be more accurate than the prediction of one average member.
wolves and sheepMetaphorPhilosophy
wormholeTheoryPhysicsA sort of tunnel formed on the surface of a black hole that may connect two different regions of space
worst case scenarioModelSystems Theory
zero sum gameModelMath
z scoreTermStatistics
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Who were the early conservatives? They emerged out of the group of former fascists and Nazi sympathizers in the US.

1930s opposition to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal

2 main right-wing factions then:

  1. libertarians — right-wing economics faction led by Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises, & Friedrich Hayek. Favors dramatically cutting taxes (aka trickle down economics), reducing social spending, while increasing the military budget dramatically — a math that does not add up, numerically or historically speaking.
  2. anti-communists, antisemites, and Nazi sympathizers — Fred Koch, William Randolph Hearst, Henry Ford, Father Charles Coughlin, Charles Lindbergh, McCarthyites. Culminating in the 1944 Great Sedition Trial and the end of WWII shortly thereafter, without real consequences handed to the perps.

After the Allies won World War II, a number of the early Hitler sympathizers “hid out” in anti-communist circles, allowing them to cloak their underlying fascism inside of the American Cold War project and give it a semi-presentable face in conservatism.

In the 1950s and ’60s we saw the emergence of the reactionary backlash:

In the 1970s, 2 more conservative groups emerged for a total of 5 main sects:

4. neoconservativesRonald Reagan, Dick Cheney,

5. the religious right — the Moral Majority, Jerry Falwell Sr. & Jr., Jimmy Swaggart, Jim & Tammy Fae Baker, Pat Robertson, Jesse Helms, Paul Weyrich, Paul Regnery, William Rusher, prosperity gospel

Conservatives welcomed fascism again in 2016

The ascension of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States gave permission to all the closet fascists practicing ketman as conservatives to come right on out and let their freak bigotry flags fly.

Bigotry, personified -- Midjourney

All the little white power sleeper cells and now networked anti-government militia groups were let off the chain and invited to take a swing at our national sovereignty and see if they could steal the American government for him. Thanks to the strength and integrity of numerous civil servants and others they did not succeed — however, the festering mass of fascism isn’t going anywhere much just yet.

Other topics

will be fleshing out further:

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It is an an age of acute political polarization. Understanding how we got to this place of hyper partisanship is exceedingly helpful for peace of mind, but the question still remains: how do we get out of it? How do we collectively evolve, to see the commonalities we share as being more important than the differences we cling to? One potential place to start is learning the art of better conflict management.

Humans aren’t natively wired for healthy conflict management — in fact, we’ve evolved with a primary skillset geared towards pretty much the opposite approach: group combat, physical violence, and social dominance for maintaining strict social hierarchies. Much of the story of the civilized world is about collectively learning how to curb those base instincts, and the ways in which we’ve utterly failed to do so — leading to wars, genocides, and unspeakable acts of horror from the micro all the way to the macro scale, again and again, from generation to generation for thousands of years of recorded human history.

The psychology of conflict

The work of many philosophers and academics leaves us with the popular impression that humans are essentially rational beings, making logical choices between alternatives based on the careful weighing of evidence, pros, and cons. Not so! Our brains are riddled with cognitive biases, mental distortions, and habits of logical fallacy we fall for again and again.

It turns out that we are pretty poor scientists in our personal lives (and often in our professional ones as well). Instead of approaching the world with an open mind and leaving room for the possibility that our ideas and assumptions may be wrong, we frequently do quite the opposite — we filter incoming information against our pre-existing convictions and keep the stuff that matches, while tossing out evidence that doesn’t agree with what we already believe. Instead of being open to what reality tries to show us, we engage with the world from a place of motivated reasoning; we expect reality to conform to what we expect of it, instead of the other way around.

As a result, when we encounter people or ideas that disagree with our own preconceived notions, we have a very hard time conceiving of the idea that their way of thinking might have any merit at all. Moreover, those people are in the same cognitive boat that we are — they’re just as convinced that we are wrong as we are that they’re the ones not thinking straight. It’s a recipe for terrible conflict management, lurking around every corner and every interaction — hundreds or even thousands of times per day for each of us.

How to improve conflict management

So how do we get better at this, given the nature of our brains to get hooked into escalating a situation rather than de-escalating it? Is it hopeless, or can we work towards improving our conflict management skills?

All hope is not lost! A number of disciplines from coaching to leadership to non-violence communication offer various types of approaches to upping our game in reducing the conflicts that seemingly rage all around us.

One such approach comes from a resource that manages to be both classic business canon and yet undersung in the general population: Dale Carnegie’s seminal work, How to Win Friends and Influence People. He suggests essentially turning your brain’s primal instinct on its head: instead of approaching every interaction with the mindframe of “I’m right and you’re wrong — let me tell you why,” Carnegie suggests practicing finding the kernel or essence of something you both actually agree on first.

Even if there’s no obvious space of overlap in your ideas, you can still take pains to truly listen to what the other person has to say and find something of value in it, and communicate your appreciation to that person. Or, simply ask them open-ended questions about their perspective and encourage them to open up further. Here are some examples of phrases you might use to let the other person know you’ve truly heard them and appreciate their thoughts:

  • That’s very interesting! Can you tell me more?
  • I think I see what you’re saying — would you explain that a bit further?
  • You’re right about X. I hadn’t thought about it that way before.
  • It sounds like we have X in common. Could we dig in to that a bit more?
  • I can understand why you’d feel that way.
  • That touches on something similar in my experience — can I tell you about it?

Only after you’ve found some initial common ground and acknowledged the validity of the other person’s perspective — even if you don’t agree with it — do you consider pivoting to bring up points of disagreement. Sometimes the essence of conflict management is simply to avoid wading into conflict in the first place, by heading it off at the pass.

Validating another person’s point of view is an extremely powerful way to open up a space of dialogue. It leverages an age-old human guideline for healthy interaction: the concept of reciprocity. When we treat people with fundamental respect — the way we ourselves hope to be treated — we have already improved our skills in conflict management by defusing potential heated arguments before they get started. And once they do, we can practice falling back to a place of basic listening and validation before attempting to head back into conflict territory.

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