A growing body of psychological and cognitive research is showing that the conservative mind has a few things in common. Some research suggests that conservatives may be more attuned to potential threats and have a stronger emotional response to them compared to liberals. For example, studies have found that conservatives tend to have greater physiological responses to images and sounds that evoke fear or disgust.
Other studies have found that conservatives tend to score higher on measures of cognitive closure, which refers to the tendency to seek closure and avoid ambiguity and uncertainty. This may manifest as a preference for traditional values, adherence to fundamentalism, and a resistance to change. Additionally, conservatives may be more likely to rely on heuristics (mental shortcuts) when making decisions, whereas liberals may be more likely to engage in deliberative thinking.
It’s possible these traits at growing scale could present a profound challenge for American democracy in years to come:
are low in the “openness” trait — seek comfort and familiarity, and avoid novelty or challenge
dislike change and difference
tend to be rigid and dogmatic thinkers; close-minded
have a strong need for closure
have a high tendency to jump to conclusions while exuding self-righteous conviction
Psychopaths are the pinnacle creatures of Cluster B — a group of personality disorders that all include pathological narcissism or NPD as a foundation. A psychopath is a cold-blooded human predator, devoid of empathy — they can be very cruel and very dangerous. They feel no shame — they consider shame the hallmark of Lesser People.
Psychopaths and their slightly-less-chilling counterparts the sociopaths (together: ASPD) make up roughly 5% of the general population — a figure which generally shocks people. That’s right — about 1 in 20 of all the people you have ever met, functionally speaking, have very little conscience. Some of them choose to behave ethically for various purposes, but many do not. They are certainly not to be trusted.
Part of the dark triad
The dark triad in psychology refers to psychopathy along with two other personality traits: narcissism, and Machiavellianism. These individuals exhibit a manipulative and malevolent style with others.
Attributes of psychopaths (this page is a work in progress):
It’s important to note, though, that not all sociopaths are killers — far from it. These are simply the notable examples most people have heard of, to get a reference point on what these personality types are like.
Most sociopaths — unfortunately — are the guy next door, the woman at work, or the dude who took you home in his Uber. They’re someone you know.
Mental models are different ways of mapping or viewing a system or a problem. They are frameworks that help explain what’s going on, and predict what’s likely to happen next.
Model thinking is an excellent way of improving our cognition and decision making abilities. Thinking in models helps us understand how new concepts fit with older observations, and what theories and metaphors are likely to endure.
They are useful in strategy, decision-making, analysis, planning, and a broad range of applications in both our personal and professional lives. It’s a good investment to spend time learning models — which are most typically extensible outside their original field of interest.
Often more than one model can apply to a situation or problem. Models are useful for picturing the issue in a different way, through a different lens — and perhaps to see something before unseen. They can help us try out different scenarios with ideas or personas.
Top Models and Concepts
We all have learnings in our lives we consider more precious than others — explanations and predictions that endure and keep on giving, versus those that fade away. Our core models form the backbone of our thinking and decision-making throughout our lives; it’s our grab bag of problem solving tools — and we want to have a resilient Swiss Army Knife at the ready at all times. These mental models help us understand a complex world, and prepare for all the changes that are inevitably ahead.
This set of top models below is my personal “desert island” set of model thinking concepts. These are the ones I really wouldn’t want to be caught dead leaving the house without.
Once these are on lock, head over to the unabridged models section for more model thinking goodness!
I will continue to add to this list over time as well as fill in the number of holes that remain in the set. Learning about new mental models is one of my favorite activities — it’s the closest thing to a superpower I can think of.
Term
Type
Topic
Definition
80/20 rule
Model
Economics
Also known as a power law, or the Pareto Principle
absolute advantage
Term
Economics
The ability of a party to produce a product or service more efficiently than any of its competitors.
absolute value
Term
Math
The value of a function irrespective of its sign (positive or negative). Its distance from zero, expressed as a positive.
accessibility
Term
Psychology
How easy something is to call to mind
acquittal
Legal precedent
Law
A judgment of not guilty in a criminal trial
activation energy
Term
Science
A chemistry term that describes the minimum energy required for a chemical system to react; the amount of energy required to get two or more compounds to react.
adverse selection
Term
Economics
Insurance phenomenon in which buyers or sellers in a transaction can use insider knowledge to unfairly get a better advantage over the other party or parties
a fortiori
Logic
Logic
From the Latin, "from a stronger argument," the phrase refers to conclusions for which there is stronger evidence than a previously accepted one.
akrasia
Term
Psychology
A state of mind where someone acts against their own better judgment due to weakness of will.
alea iacta est
Metaphor
Metaphor
In Latin, "the die is cast" -- attributed to Julius Caesar as he crossed the river Rubicon, leading an attack on Rome: a metaphor for a point of no return.
allocation
Method
Economics
Distributing resources, assets, or funds amongs recipients.
"All the world's a stage“
Metaphor
Arts
Shakespearean metaphor likening culture to a theatrical performance: "And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances ..."
—William Shakespeare, As You Like It
Amara's Law
Theory
Science
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
annuity
Term
Economics
A series of regular payments at equal intervals.
antifragility
Model
Economics
Things that can benefit from disorder, and grow stronger amidst chaos. When something grows stronger under stress; when there is more upside to downside of experiencing a shock to the system.
antimatter
Theory
Science
Antimatter particles are the precise opposite charge and spin from their matter counterparts, but identical otherwise.
appreciation
Model
Economics
The tendency of an asset to appreciate, or grow, with value over time.
a priori
Logic
Philosophy
Information deduced from logical precedents versus empirical observation.
arbitrage
Model
Economics
A method of turning profit via simultaneous purchase and sale of the same assets in different markets, benefiting from the differences in listed price in various geographical regions.
archetypes
Symbol
Philosophy
An ideal type; a model after which others are fashioned.
arrow of time
Theory
Science
Theory of physics stating an asymmetry of time -- that time has a one-way direction in which the entropy of the universe is only increasing. Although human beings perceive the past as being different from the future -- and that we remember the past, but not the future -- intrinsically there is nothing in the structure of the universe that defines past from future. Time is instead an emergent feature.
artificia docuit fames
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
Latin saying meaning, "sophistication is born out of hunger" -- a metaphor for innovation and genius being awakened by challenge, difficulty, and constraints.
ASCII
Term
Technology
American Standard Code for Information Interchange: a standard character translation table used by computers to convert numerical representations into printable characters.
asking a fish about water
Metaphor
Metaphor
There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”
asset
Term
Economics
A valuable object or good.
astroturfing
Method
Politics
The deceptive political practice of paying operatives to pose as members of the public engaging in "grassroots protest" as a way of adding plausible deniability as well as amplification of their point of view.
asymmetric encryption
Term
Computer Science
Also known as public-key cryptography, asymmetric encryption encrypts and decrypts the data using two separate keys that are related mathematically (a public and a private key).
asymptote
Term
Math
The graph of a curve as it is approaching a numerical value or limit, but never quite reaching it.
autophagy
Experimental finding
Biology, Medicine
The body's way of cleaning out damaged cells and replace them with newer, healthier cells. Literally, "self-eating."
availability bias
Model
Psychology
Cognitive distortion arising from the unconscious preference for information that is recent rather than what is representative.
average
Method
Math
A measure of central tendency of a set of data, whether the mean, media, or mode.
balance sheet
Method
Economics
A financial document showing the book value of a company, i.e. how much it's worth.
balancing loop
Model
Systems theory
A balancing loop attempts to move a current state (the way things are) to a desired state (goal or objective) though an action (thing(s) done to reach the goal).The balancing loop is one of the two foundational structures of systems thinking, along with the Reinforcing Loop. A balancing loop is representative of any situation where there is a goal or an objective and action is taken to achieve that goal or objective.
Baldwin Effect
Model
Science
As organisms learn to shape their environment, they can alter the path of evolution. For example, with the advent of dairy farming, selection pressures began favoring lactose absorption genes in humans.
bank reserves
Term
Economics
Cash minimums banks must have on hand to meet regulatory requirements ensuring the financial system is equipped to handle periodic shocks in demand for withdrawals.
bank run
Term
Economics
Economic term for when a large group of bank depositors withdraw their money all at once -- once a common occurrence that rarely happens anymore in the modern world.
base conversion
Math
Math
The base is how many numbers there are in a number system; we use base 10 primarily, and computers use base 2, aka binary. Base conversion is the method of converting numbers from one base system to another.
Base Rate Fallacy
Model
Psychology
A type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the general prevalence of something in favor of specific anecdotes.
base weighting
Math
Statistics
Bayes' Theorem
Method
Math
A mathematical method of determining the updated probability of a certain event or case, given new information.
bend the knee
Metaphor
Social psychology
Give up one's own opinion and swear fealty to a higher authority.
beta
Method
Economics
In finance, a term that refers to investments tracking the broad market performance of an exchange or industry sector
The Big Bang
Model
Science
The massive explosion which spawned our entire universe, back at the beginning of time.
The Big Crunch
Model
Science
binary numbers
Math
Math
binomial distribution
Math
Statistics
Binomial Theorem
Theory
Math
black hole
Theory
Science
Black-Scholes model
Model
Economics
Black Swan
Model
Economics
A highly improbable and unexpected event -- which yet occurs with more frequency than one might generally assume.
blockchain
Term
Technology
The basis of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology is a kind of public ledger or shared database that records transactions transparently and out in the open, in a way that anyone can access or verify.
boiling frog
Metaphor
Philosophy
A metaphor for the common occurence of slow, gradual changes over time not being noticed, like the (contested) legend of a scienfitic experiment that boiling a frog alive by starting with tepid water and slowly turning up the temperature.
bond
Method
Economics
Boyle's Law
Scientific Law
Science
A scientific law that describes the relationship between the pressure and the volume of a confined gas.
boundary object
Theory
Technology
Information science concept describing information used in different ways, by different communities, for collaborative work through scales.
bounded rationality
Experimental finding
Psychology
A central challenge to the c. 1776 ideas of Adam Smith regarding the Invisible Hand of markets, this 20th c. psychological theory posits that rather than making optimized rational decisions, at most times the average person is "satisficing" or making the most expedient choice under considerable constraints and lack of available information
bricolage
Method
Arts
Combination of many types and forms into one piece; a pastiche or mashup of style and cultural referents
broken windows theory
Theory
Law
Butterfly Effect
Model
Science
bystander effect
Experimental finding
Psychology
cadence
Term
Arts
camel's nose
Metaphor
Philosophy
a metaphor describing how allowing a smaller innocuous act may lead to larger acts that are undesirable
capital gains
Term
Economics
Money that is earned as a result of a stock investment appreciating in value — the capital "gains in value"
capital requirements
Economics
Actual cash on hand for banks to theoretically offer at a given time, with the rest lended out as leverage
carbon-14
Scientific Law
Science
carbon dating
Method
Science
A way to scientifically determine the age of an organic object by radioactive decay.
carpe diem
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
In Latin, "seize the day" -- a reference often used to motivate oneself and others to act boldly and live vigorously in the moment.
cartel
Economics
catalyst
Model
Science
categorical data
Math
causa-sui project
Theory
Psychology
cause and effect
Model
caveat emptor
Ancient Wisdom
Strategy
"Beware, the buyer" in Latin -- a reference to a warning about what one is getting into.
cellular automata
Math
Central Limit Theorem
Math
Statistics
In probability theory, the CLT establishes that independent random variables when measured will tend towards the normal distribution.
central tendency
Math
Statistics
A measure of the midpoint of a data set; includes mean, median, and mode.
ceteris paribus
Method
Economics
"All other things being equal"; holding the effects of other variables constant to determine the effects on a single variable of interest.
charge preservation
Science
charlatan
Psychology
one who aspires to wealth &/or fame through trickery and deception
Chesterton's Fence
Model
Metaphor
chilling effect
Term
History
The inhibition of one's legitimate exercise of natural and legal rights by threat of legal sanction.
cognitive bias
Experimental finding
Psychology
collapse
Model
Systems theory
comparative advantage
Economics
composite events
Statistics
in probability
compound interest
Model
Economics
conditionals
Math
Condorcet Jury Theorem
Math
Statistics
confidence interval
Statistics
the range of values over which a predicted outcome may lie; the amount of certainty one has about the predicted value falling within the estimated range
confirmation bias
Experimental finding
Psychology
conflation
Psychology
consent of the governed
Philosophy
Politics
Concept of political philosophy in which a government's legitimacy and right to use state power is only justified if consented to by the people over whom said power is wielded.
consequentialism
Philosophy
conservation of energy
Scientific Law
Chemistry
In a closed system, total energy remains constant.
conservation of mass
Scientific Law
Physics
In a closed system, mass remains constant.
conservation of momentum
Scientific Law
Physics
In a closed system, momentum remains constant.
constraints
Math
Consumer Sentiment Index
Economics
continuous vs. discrete variables
Statistics
Copernican theory of the solar system
Scientific Law
Science
correlation
Statistics
correlation coefficient
Statistics
correlation is not causation
Scientific Law
Statistics
cosine
Math
Math
counterfactual
countervailing power
Economics
Economist John Kenneth Galbraith's concept for how collective worker power is needed to balance against growing corporatism in the economy.
creative destruction
Model
Economics
Economist Joseph Shumpeter's idea for how the business cycle works: by innovation disrupting established processes and industries and forcing change into markets, often destructively and swiftly.
credo quia absurdum
"I believe because it is absurd" — Tertullian's defense of belief in the miracles attributed to Christ
critical mass
Science
crossing the Rubicon
Metaphor
History
Making a decision from which there is no turning back; a reference to Julius Caesar's overthrow of the Roman republic to found the Roman Empire in 49 BCE.
cross-sectional data
Math
crowdfunding
Economics
crowdsourcing
Method
Systems theory
cryptocurrency
Economics
Dark Matter
Theory
Science
dead hand of the past
Philosophy
History
Problem inherent in constitutional political philosophy, where eventually a people becomes ruled by "masters" no longer alive, who rule by "fiat" via a document, from beyond the grave (Thomas Jefferson's concept)
death spiral
decision theory
Systems theory
decision tree
Method
Computer Science
de minimis
Legal precedent
Law
depreciation
Method
Economics
derivatives
Math
diminshing marginal utility (DMU)
Model
Economics
directory structure
Computers
dispersion
Math
Statistics
the amount of variation within a set of data; how spread out the data points are from each other
distributions
Math
Statistics
divergent thinking
Psychology
diversity
Experimental finding
Science
Diversity Prediction Theorem
dividend payments
Method
Economics
Periodic, usually quarterly, payouts to stockholders of the company when posting profits. Along with capital gains, one of the 2 primary reasons to invest in stocks.
Dodd-Frank Act of 2010
Legal precedent
Economics
definitive financial regulation of the financial industry following the 2007-8 financial crisis
domain dependence
Doppler Effect
Scientific Law
Physics
double helix
doxa
Social psychology
common belief or opinion
Drake Equation
Model
Science
Estimation of the number of technological civilizations that might exist in the universe.
dualism
Philosophy
Dunbar number
Theory
Psychology
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Experimental finding
Psychology
A cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as higher than it actually is, because they cannot recognize their incompetence in comparison to others.
Duverger's Law
Model
Politics
Holds that plurality-rule elections within single member districts — such as the structure found in the U.S. — tend to favor two-party systems
Easterlin paradox
Experimental finding
Economics
Beyond a certain point, countries don't get happier as they get richer.
economies of scale
Economics
edge case
Metaphor
Science
elasticity; price elasticity
Model
Economics
The ability of pricing mechanisms to respond quickly or less quickly to changes in prevailing conditions.
elasticity of demand
Model
Economics
elasticity of supply
Model
Economics
electromagnetic spectrum
Scientific Law
Science
electron cloud
Model
Science
Refers to the true nature of an electron's existence around an atom, wherein its location in space is not a definite point, but a fuzzy region of probable occurence.
elephants and flies
Metaphor
Economics
Sales concept to quickly segment leads into size buckets, from elephants > deers > rabbits > mice > flies.
elephant and rider
Model
Psychology
Psychological idea about how our unconscious and semi-conscious desires dominate us, but can be directed by reason (Jonathan Haidt et al)
embargo
Legal precedent
Economics
Emperor's New Clothes
Metaphor
Government
encryption
Math
ensemble learning
Method
Technology
entropy
Scientific Law
Science
The disorder of a system increases over time.
epistemology
Philosophy
e pluribus unum
Symbol
Politics
Latin: "one out of many" — one of several phrases on the American dollar bill, it refers to the unity of the nation as made up of its many peoples and as such, signifies the republic.
equality under law
Legal precedent
Politics
An ancient principle of vital importance to almost every constitution in the world, stating that all people should be treated equally in the eyes of the law, and that all individuals are subject to the same set of laws
equilibrium
Science
A resting condition all systems seek, in which all competing inflows and outflows are in balance.
equity
Economics
equity crowdfunding
Economics
error-embracing
Psychology
event horizon
Scientific Law
Physics
A boundary beyond which events cannot affect on observer, such as the edge of a black hole.
evolution
Scientific Law
Science
exception handling
Method
Computer Science
The process of responding to the occurrence of exceptions -- unexpected conditions that throw the application into an error state and must be resolved before continuing.
exchange rates
Economics
The value of one country's currency as measured against another
existentialism
Philosophy
exit strategy
Method
Economics
externalities
Economics
extrapolation
Statistics
factorial
Math
factum tacendo, crimen facias acrius
Philosophy
He who does not stop a crime is an accomplice.
fact /value problem
Philosophy
fake news
Media
false negatives
Logic
Science
false positives
Logic
Science
false consensus effect
Experimental finding
Social psychology
falsifiability
Logic
Science
Ability to be proven untrue; a requirement for a theory to be called scientific.
Feynman Technique
Method
Science
A method of learning and remembering difficult concepts by simplifying them until you can explain it to a new student or layperson who knows nothing about that concept.
fiat money
Economics
fiduciary duty
Legal precedent
Economics
fifth column
Model
Politics
A group who unites in secret to undermine a larger group from within.
file system
Metaphor
Computer Science
filter bubble
Metaphor
Social psychology
first mover advantage
Experimental finding
Strategy
first principles
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
fishing expedition
Metaphor
fitness function
Term
Science
In AI, refers to a set of selection criteria applied to a set of potential solutions to a problem to allow only the better candidates to survive to the next generation.
flâneur
Term
Arts
force multiplier
Model
Science
fractals
Math
Computer Science
fractional lending
Method
Economics
Fractional reserve banking is the traditional way of doing business, in which banks loan out multiples of the assets they actually have on hand. This falls apart if there is ever a run on the bank, when every client demands their money back at the same time.
fractions
Term
Math
fragility
Philosophy
framing
Psychology
free trade
Method
Economics
free will
Philosophy
Philosophy
freshwater vs. saltwater economists
Economics
Friend of the Court filing
Law
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt)
Social psychology
fundamental attribution error
Experimental finding
Psychology
future value
Economics
gain
Term
Arts
In audio recording, a control that allows more or less of the source sound into the channel being recorded.
game theory
Math
Gates' Law
Theory
Philosophy
The idea that software development speed halves every 18 months, negating the acceleratory effects of Moore's Law and preventing computing from leaping greatly forward.
Gaussian distribution
Term
Statistics
the Normal distribution
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Model
Economics
The sum of all public and private goods produced within a given period; a measure of a country's economic health.
general relativity
Theory
Science
general will
Model
Government
generalists and specialists
Philosophy
genetic algorithms
Science
An approach to AI based on evolutionary models, in which multiple candidate solutions to a problem are generated randomly by mutation and recombination, then iterated over thousands of generations through fitness functions to weed out the best of each generation.
germ theory of disease
Scientific Law
Gettier problem
Philosophy
gilding the lilly
Metaphor
Arts
Speaking so floridly of a subject that one actually tarnishes its natural beauty.
GOFAI
Technology
"Good Old-Fashioned Artificial Intelligence" — reference to the style and general algorithmic approach of early artificial intelligence work, which fell out of popularity over the decades in favor of more organic neural net and evolutionary approaches.
Golden calf
Golden Mean
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
Aristotelian theory of an ideal balance point between the many extremes we face in life; he advocated harmony between the various spheres of life for an experience of happiness.
Golden Rule
Ancient Wisdom
Culture
"Do unto others, as you would have them do unto you" is the essence of this ancient wisdom, often used as a shorthand version of Jesus's core teaching.
Goldilocks Zone
Model
gold standard
Legal precedent
Economics
gravity
Scientific Law
Science
gravity waves
Physics
habeas corpus
Legal precedent
Law
habitus
Theory
Social psychology
Hanlon's Razor
Model
Philosophy
never attribute to malice what is adequately described by carelessness
hard determinism
Philosophy
harmonics
Arts
hearts and minds
Politics
hedge funds
Economics
hedonism
Philosophy
Philosophy
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
Theory
Science
hexadecimal numbers
Term
Math
base 6
heuristics
Model
Psychology
Mental shortcuts that we do as a matter of routine, especially when we're stressed or under other types of cognitive constraints.
hormesis
Science
When a small dose of a toxic substance is actually beneficial to the living thing that ingests it
hydra
Metaphor
iatrogenics
Health
harm done by the healer
ice core dating
Method
Science
id, ego, superego
Model
Psychology
Freud's psychological model of the conscious and unconscious mind.
implicit cost
Economics
Imposter Syndrome
Model
Psychology
A psychological pattern in which one doubts their own accomplishments and has a generalized fear of being exposed as a fraud.
index number; indexing
Statistics
inferior goods
Economics
inflation
Model
Economics
inflection point
Math
The point of a curve at which a change in the direction of the curve occurs.
intellectual property
Legal precedent
Economics
IP
interest
Model
Economics
interest rate
Economics
internal rate of return (IRR)
Economics
Internet of Things (IoT)
Term
Technology
intersection
Math
interventionism
Social psychology
Invisible Hand
Theory
Economics
IP addresses
Term
Technology
iron law of oligarchy
Theory
Politics
Political theory positing that no matter how democratic a group may start out, over time it will develop into a bureaucracy ruled by a small handful.
It from Bit
Theory
Physics
John Wheeler's theory about the fundamental informational nature of the universe
Keynesian economics
Theory
Economics
Keynesian Put
Model
Economics
keystone
Kronos Effect
Model
Economics
the tendency of a successful corporation to seek to acquire and/or drive its upstart competitors out of business
Laffer Curve
Theory
Economics
law of excluded middle
Law of Large Numbers
Scientific Law
Math
As the number of coin tosses approaches infinity, the number of heads encountered will converge on 0.5; helpful in calculations of probability.
least-barricaded gate
Metaphor
Politics
Trotsky's metaphor of how social revolutions can take hold more easily in already weakened societies.
lecturing birds how to fly
Metaphor
Metaphor
length contraction
Model
Physics
less is more
Philosophy
Metaphor
L'etat c'est moi
Philosophy
Politics
"I am the state“
leverage
Economics
lifeboat ethics
Philosophy
Philosophy
light-weight process
Computer Science
limit of a function
Term
Math
if the graph of an equation seems to approach a numerical value but never quite reaches it, we say that number is the limit of the function (approaching from the negative or positive direction; sometimes directionality is important)
limiting factor
Model
Systems Theory
linear regression
Method
Math
liquidity
Economics
local min
Model
Systems Theory
idea that to grow out of a stasis or plateau, you likely have to endure a period of "setback" that is a lower dip or minimum value from where you are now, but is what's required to get over the activation energy to reach the next level
locus of control
logarithm
Math
logical fallacies
Philosophy
long tail
Model
Math
In a power law distribution (of population, ages, items, etc.), the region of the graph that tapers off quickly after the initial segment of high data points
loss aversion
Experimental finding
Psychology
Lost Einsteins
Theory
Culture
http://doctorparadox.net/models/lost-einsteins/
loyalists and mercenaries
Metaphor
Systems Theory
maker's time and manager's time
Model
Systems Theory
M1
Economics
M2
Economics
mandala
Ancient Wisdom
Religion
Introcate and elaborate patterns created with colored sand by Buddhist monks, who blow away their creations at the end to signify their celebration of impermanence.
Manichaean
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
a narrowly-defined dualistic worldview of good against evil
man on horseback
Metaphor
Synonym for a demagogue. Comes from French general Georges Ernest Boulanger, and refers to a military leader who presents himself as the savior of the country during a crisis and either assumes or threatens to assume dictatorial powers.
map is not the territory
Metaphor
Metaphor
A phrase reminding us that our mental picture of a thing is not the same as the actual thing itself
margin of error
Math
Statistics
How much uncertainty there is in the results; a percentage the estimate may be bounded by.
marginal benefit
Economics
marginal cost
Economics
marginal returns
Economics
marginal utility
Economics
market share
Economics
Markov chain
Term
Math
Maslow's Hierarchy of needs
Model
Psychology
mean
Math
Statistics
The average value of the numbers in a data set; take the sum of all values and divide by the total number of values in the set.
median
Math
Statistics
Like mean, another way to describe the central tendency of a data set.
Median Voter Theorem
Theory
Politics
megalopsychon
Philosophy
Philosophy
Concept in Aristotelian ethics of living with grandeur and taking risks with dignity; being nonsmall
mens rea
Legal precedent
Law
"guilty mind" — establishing the intent of a perp can help to establish criminal liability
mercantilism
Theory
Economics
meritocracy
Model
Systems Theory
metaphysics
Philosophy
Philosophy
mirror neurons
Experimental finding
Science
mode
Math
Statistics
The frequency with which each data point exists in the set.
monopoly
Model
Economics
Market condition in which there exists only one seller of a resource.
monopsony
Model
Economics
Market condition in which there exists only one buyer of a resource.
Moore's Law
Theory
Technology
Named after Gordon Moore, the model predicts the doubling of transistors on a circuit of equivalent size every 18 months to 2 years. This has many consequences for both technology and economics, including the predictable drop in price of generating the same amount of computing power each period.
moral hazard
Model
Economics
when one party takes on additional risk, knowing that other parties will bear the brunt of the risk in event of a loss
Moravec's Paradox
MVP (minimum viable product)
Term
Economics
naive cynicism
Psychology
State of mind in which people believe others to have more egocentric bias than is warranted or is actually the case.
Narcissus & Echo
Ancient Wisdom
Metaphor
Nash Equilibrium
Theory
Math
nasty, brutish, and short
Theory
Philosophy
natural laws
Science
natural selection
Scientific Law
Science
necessity is the mother of invention
Common Wisdom
Culture
negative externalities
Model
Economics
negative interest rates
Method
Economics
neomania
Experimental finding
Social psychology
love of the modern for its own sake
neural net
Term
Technology
net present value (NPV)
Model
Economics
neuroplasticity
Experimental finding
Science
Newton's first law
Scientific Law
Science
An object in motion will tend to stay in motion, unless acted upon by a force.
Newton's second law
Scientific Law
Science
F = ma, or an object of mass m feeling a force F will tend to accelerate by an amount a.
Newton's third law
Scientific Law
Science
When 2 objects interact, they each apply force on the other in equal amounts magnitude, in the opposite direction.
nodes
Term
Math
noosphere
Thought Experiment
Data science
Sphere of human thought — all interacting minds on earth. An early 1900s concept from Teilhard de Chardin
nominal figures
Economics
nonlinearity
Math
Normal distribution
Scientific Law
Math
normal goods
Economics
normalized weighted average
Statistics
normative and descriptive
Philosophy
noumena
Philosophy
novus ordo seclorum
Symbol
Government
A new order for the ages; Latin phrase seen on the American dollar bill.
null hypothesis
Method
Science
observer effect
Experimental finding
Science
Occam's Razor
Theory
Philosophy
A philosophical rule of thumb that favors the simplest explanation. Also known as the "law of parsimony."
octal numbers
Math
Computer Science
base 8
oligopoly
Term
Economics
omphalos
Politics
opportunity cost
Model
Economics
What you miss out on by using a resource in a certain way -- what you would have done with the resource otherwise; what alternative use you would have put it to.
options
Economics
orders of magnitude
Scientific Law
Math
ordinally ranked data
Statistics
organizational debt
Economics
oscillations
Science
out-group bias
Experimental finding
Social psychology
outlier
Model
Math
Data points that fall well outside of the normal distribution or expected distribution of a data set.
paradox
Model
Logic
A self-contradicting statement or logically impossible event.
paragon
Model
Culture
A standard against which something can be judged — an exemplar example of a thing
Pareto Principle
Experimental finding
Economics
Another term for the 80/20 Rule
path dependent
Math
Computer Science
Pavlovian response
Experimental finding
Science
pax Romana
Legal precedent
History
pearls before swine
Metaphor
Culture
The sense of wasting one's efforts for people who don't really appreciate them.
P/E Ratio
Method
Economics
Price to earnings ratio: standard measure of relative stock performance
permutations
Math
Computer Science
Peter Principle
Theory
Systems Theory
Theory that individuals within corporate and other organizational hierarchies will rise to the highest level at which they become incompetent in their job duties.
phase shift
Scientific Law
Science
The ability of matter to change phases, most famously water from liquid to ice to vapor and back again.
philosopher kings
Ancient Wisdom
Philosopher's Stone
Unsolved Mystery
phonemes
Experimental finding
plant a seed
Metaphor
Platonic forms
Model
Platonicity
Philosophy
adherence to crisp abstract theory & forms that blind us to the mess of actual reality
Plato's Cave
Model
Philosophy
Allegory in Plato's Republic about a cave dweller whose only picture of reality is the shadow on the cave wall thrown by the fire.
pluralism
Government
point of no return
Metaphor
Culture
polling
Method
Statistics
Pollyanna Principle
Model
Psychology
The tendency for people to remember pleasant events more accurately than unpleasant ones.
populism
Government
positron
Scientific Law
Physics
an antimatter electron
Potemkin Village Effect
Model
Systems Theory
Tendency of systems to create the appearance of functioning normally — to appease the operators who wish it so — even when they are not.
precision
Math
present value
Economics
The expected current value of an income stream.
price ceiling
Economics
price floor
Economics
prima facie
principle of indifference
Statistics
In probability, when there is no basis to choose some outcomes as more likely than others, they are given equal weight (1/2 chance of a particular side of a coin, 1/52 to get a particular card from a deck, etc.).
Prisoner's Dilemma
Thought Experiment
Math
private equity (PE)
Method
Economics
probability
Math
probability distribution
Math
Statistics
Procrustean bed
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
Synonymous with ruthlessly enforcing conformity, the phrase comes from a Greek tale of extreme "form fitting" on the part of Poseidon's son Procrustes, a robber who is said to have attacked victims by cutting off men's legs or stretching them on racks accordingly to fit an iron bed size.
profit
Legal precedent
Economics
propaganda
Method
Social psychology
originally, a way to "propagate" any idea; used by both sides in WWI, it thereafter took on a sinister connotation when American & British citizens felt hoodwinked by their govt's use of it
proper frame
Physics
in physics, the frame of reference that accelerates with you and determines your age
proportionality
Model
Math
prospect theory
Psychology
proximate cause
Logic
proxy war
Term
Politics
pseudoscience
Method
Culture
PTSD
Psychology
punctuated equilibrium
Model
Science
putting legs on a snake
Metaphor
Pygmalian Effect
Social psychology
Pyrrhic victory
Metaphor
History
A victory in which the costs of winning far outweigh the rewards.
quantum computing
Method
Computer Science
quantum entanglement
Theory
Physics
quantum physics
Science
qubit
Science
quid pro quo
Legal precedent
Law
quota
r > q
Model
Economics
Thomas Piketty's elegant demonstration of the rise of inequality
random walks
Math
range
Statistics
In a set of numbers, the difference between the highest value and the lowest value in the data set.
rara avis
Ancient Wisdom
Culture
"Rare bird" in Latin; similar to an outlier. Someone who stands out.
rate of return
Economics
Reagonomics
Economics
realism
Philosophy
reality testing
Model
Psychology
Discerning the difference between inner and outer, and seeing events as they really are, and not just what we want them to be.
received wisdom
Ancient Wisdom
Religion
recursion
Method
Math
red shift
Scientific Law
Science
reductio ad absurdo
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
Collapsing things too far, in a way that destroys real significance.
reductio ad finem
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
To analyze to the end — break the concept down into its conponent parts.
redundancy
Method
Systems Theory
Having multiple pathways within a system to accomplish the same task or achieve the same objective.
reference frame
Physics
A frame that does not accelerate; also known as a Lorentz frame.
regnat populus
regression analysis
Method
Statistics
reincarnation
Unsolved Mystery
Religion
reinforcing loop
Systems theory
relativity
Theory
Physics
Einstein's central insight that the experience or perceived passage of time depends greatly on the conditions of the observer, particularly with respect to velocity and gravity
resilience
Model
Systems Theory
Ability to bounce back into shape after having been pressed or stretched; elasticity. The ability to recover quickly.
respice finem
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
"Consider that you will die" — i.e. live life as you would in order to be proud of it by the time it's over.
res publica
Ancient Wisdom
Government
pertaining to the state
retrodiction
revenue
Economics
ripple effect
Experimental finding
Science
risk
Legal precedent
Economics
risk-weighted assets (RWAs)
Economics
root cause
Philosophy
Rosetta Stone
Experimental finding
History
Metaphorically, a key to unlocking the secrets of a given thing.
rounding
Method
Math
rounding error
Math
rule of law
Legal precedent
Philosophy
run on the bank
sampling
Method
Statistics
samsara
Religion
scarcity
Economics
Schelling's Tipping Model
Schrödinger's Cat
Theory
Physics
search intent
Term
Media
second-order thinking
selection bias
Experimental finding
Psychology
self-governance
Philosophy
set theory
Math
ship of Theseus
Ancient Wisdom
Metaphor
SIFI
Economics
systemically important financial institution; post-2008 financial crisis designation for banks deemed "too big to fail" (currently, firms holding more than $50b in assets)
sigma
Statistics
standard deviation, named for the Greek letter denoting the statistical term
signal path
Physics
significant figures
Math
aka "sig figs"
simulation
Philosophy
sine
Math
Physics
sine wave
Math
Physics
Single point of failure (SPoF)
Term
Computer Science
A part of a system that, when it fails, brings down the entire rest of the system or stops it from working properly
singularity
Theory
Science
A black hole.
SIR model
Model
Science
contagious disease modelling based on possible patient states (susceptible, infected, recovered)
site navigation
Method
Computer Science
six degrees of separation
Experimental finding
Psychology
six sigma
Method
Strategy
Motorola-originated concept of ensuring quality control to a very fine point, by ensuring that parts or other production outputs are manufactured to be within a certain quality range up to 6 times the standard deviation.
situational preparedness
Method
Strategy
skew
Math
Statistics
skin in the game
Ancient Wisdom
Economics
When someone has a stake in the outcome, they are more likely to keep their word in assist its fruition.
slope of a line
Math
Statistics
social contract
Legal precedent
Philosophy
Profoundly impactful document in political philosophy from Jean Jacques Rousseau in 18th c. France, refuting the rights of monarchs to rule the people
Socratic method
Method
Philosophy
Technique of instruction or conversation where the teacher or moderator proceeds by asking the student or pupil a serious of questions, enticing her or him to come up with their own answers to the issues related to the subject at hand.
solipsism
sorting
Math
special relativity
Scientific Law
Science
speech act theory
Theory
Philosophy
British philosopher J.L.Austin's concept that all uses of speech carry a performative aspect.
speed of light (c)
Scientific Law
Science
approx. 300 million meters per second
spread
Statistics
squaring the circle
Unsolved Mystery
A notorious philosophical problem first posed by Plato, the phrase has come to be used to allude to the grandiosity and infeasibility of someone's plans.
standard deviation
Math
Statistics
standing waves
Term
stare decisis
Legal precedent
Law
"It has been decided" — terminology used by a judge or court to indicate that the matter before them has already been decided by a previous ruling.
state of nature
Thought Experiment
Philosophy
status quo
Term
Culture
The way things currently are.
stochastic terrorism
Term
Social psychology
stocks and flows
Model
Systems Theory
Stoicism
Ancient Wisdom
Philosophy
Streisand Effect
Metaphor
Social psychology
When the act of attempting to hide information only makes it more prominently spread, especially via the Internet.
strict father morality
George Lakoff's terminology to describe the conservative worldview.
strict liability
Law
Crimes which have no mens rea requirement, such as rear-ending of another vehicle (where it is always the rear-enders' fault no matter what the circumstances.
subsidy
Economics
success to the successful
Systems theory
A reinforcing loop within complex system — especially economies — wherein the spoils of victory include the means to alter the rules of the game further in the favor of the previous winners.
summum malum
Ancient Wisdom
Politics
ultimate evil — some posit cruelty as this ultimate evil
supply and demand
Model
Economics
supply chain
Term
Economics
sword of Damocles
Ancient Wisdom
Metaphor
symmetric encryption
Term
tabula rasa
Ancient Wisdom
Metaphor
Blank slate
tachyon
Experimental finding
Science
hypothetical particle that travels faster than the speed of light
tangent
Method
Math
tariff
Legal precedent
Economics
tempus edax rerum
Ancient Wisdom
Arts
"Time devours everything." — Ovid
tempus fugit
Ancient Wisdom
Time flies
tempus neminem manet
Ancient Wisdom
time waits for no man
Third Story
Thought Experiment
Philosophy
the story an impartial third-party observer might tell; a version of events any unbiased person could agree on
Thucydides Trap
tilting at windmills
Metaphor
Arts
A reference to the novel Don Quixote, denoting the ongoing pursuit of useless attacks against an implacable enemy. Ineffectual activity undertaken strenuously and loudly.
time dilation
Thought Experiment
Science
time series data
Method
Statistics
A collection of measurements taken over time that create a graph when plotted.
time value of money
Theory
Economics
tipping point
Model
Systems Theory
Tit-for-Tat
Method
Strategy
too many cooks in the kitchen
Metaphor
Culture
A metaphor connoting that too many people are currently involved in the decision-making process.
touchstone
Metaphor
Myth/Metaphor
A black stone once used to judge the purity of gold or silver — now signifying a standard against which something should be judged.
Tower of Babel
Metaphor
Religion
A tale in the book of Genesis in the Bible that purports to explain the origins of different languages, via narrative about God confounding the speech of humans trying to build a tower to reach Him.
trade-offs
Model
Economics
tragedy of the commons
Experimental finding
Economics
An economic term for a situation in which unfettered access to a resource can lead to resource depletion through uncoordinated behavior -- a classic example is overfishing. A commonly-pooled (aka public) resource is overconsumed, but underinvested in.
transitivity
Term
Math
trickle down economics
Method
Economics
Right-wing economics, also known as Reaganomics, supply side economics, fiscal conservatism, tax cut policy, and austerity.
trolly problem
Thought Experiment
Philosophy
turtles all the way down
Theory
Philosophy
twin paradox
Thought Experiment
Science
tyranny of choice
Experimental finding
Systems Theory
The paradoxical effect that having too many options to choose from actually decreases the likelihoof of being able to reach a decision at all.
Unicode
Term
Computers
union
Term
Math
In set theory, a union of sets is a set which consists of all the members of all the sets.
universal law
Philosophy
Philosophy
usury
Term
Economics
The act of charging interest on borrowed money; for thousands of years there have been religous proscriptions against lending money with interest in various societies.
utility
Theory
Philosophy
variance
Math
Statistics
The amount of variation within a data set.
Veil of Ignorance
Model
Philosophy
Philosopher John Rawls' model for making better ethical decisions, in which the decider chooses a course of action based on the predicate that s/he will not know which of the groups or persons affected by the decision they personally would be. This method creates natural incentives to find the fairest outcome for all groups, since the decider doesn't know which group they will "end up in" on the other side of the decision.
Venn Diagram
Model
Math
via negativa
Method
Philosophy
An indirect description of a thing by describing what that thing is not.
Volcker rule
Legal precedent
Economics
Financial rule preventing consumer lending banks from speculative trading in securities for their own profit.
vulnerability
Experimental finding
Psychology
wave function
Scientific Law
Science
wave-particle duality
Experimental finding
Science
wheel of life
Symbol
Religion
when life gives you lemons
Metaphor
Philosophy
You try to make lemonade! Another way of saying, "let's try and make the best of this unfortunate situation."
winner-take-all market
Economics
wisdom of crowds
Model
Social psychology
Derived from the Diversity Prediction Theorem: the average prediction of a group of individuals will be more accurate than the prediction of one average member.
wolves and sheep
Metaphor
Philosophy
wormhole
Theory
Physics
A sort of tunnel formed on the surface of a black hole that may connect two different regions of space
Who were the early conservatives? They emerged out of the group of former fascists and Nazi sympathizers in the US.
1930s opposition to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal
2 main right-wing factions then:
libertarians — right-wing economics faction led by Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises, & Friedrich Hayek. Favors dramatically cutting taxes (aka trickle down economics), reducing social spending, while increasing the military budget dramatically — a math that does not add up, numerically or historically speaking.
The ascension of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States gave permission to all the closet fascists practicing ketman as conservatives to come right on out and let their freak bigotry flags fly.
All the little white power sleeper cells and now networked anti-government militia groups were let off the chain and invited to take a swing at our national sovereignty and see if they could steal the American government for him. Thanks to the strength and integrity of numerous civil servants and others they did not succeed — however, the festering mass of fascism isn’t going anywhere much just yet.
I’ve been reading Erich Fromm’s Escape from Freedom and it’s synthesizing a few things together for me in new ways — prime among them the realization that collective narcissism is the shared root ideology of both Christian nationalism and Nazism. First off, I’d recommend it:
Next, I’d like to thank it for reminding me about the insidious dangers of Calvinism and the Protestant Work Ethic, as described in sociologist Max Weber‘s most cited work in the history of the field. Beyond the problematic authoritarianism of John Calvin as a person himself, the ideology of predestination coupled with a paradoxical obsessive compulsion with working yourself ragged is a noxious brew that fed the Protestant extrusion of American capitalism as well as the murderous violence of its Manifest Destiny.
Reformation Ideologies
Calvin — like Luther before him — was reacting to the social and economic upheavals of his day which, during the Reformation, were all about the middle class emerging from the security and certainty of feudalism into a far more dynamic world of competition, isolation, and aloneness. It held promise but also peril — hope along with, inescapably, fear.
During the Middle Ages, humankind had retreated from the aspirational virtuousness of the Greek and Roman civilizations and descended into almost 1000 years of darkness, as compared to the dazzling intellectual brilliance of the millennium before it. Those who would prefer cultish cowering in self-righteous ignorance over the humility of fallible science and critical thinking managed to topple a glittering civilization and scatter it to the wolves. It was a return to cruel and arbitrary happenstance, a horrifying Hobbesian world of pestilence and pathology.
Motivated reasoning is a common daily phenomenon for all of us, assuming we’re human and/or interact with other humans. It’s a cognitive science term that refers to a type of emotional bias in which we have a tendency to prefer decisions or justifications based on their personal desirability vs. an unbiased examination of the facts.
Thinking and feeling aren’t anywhere near as “separate” in the brain as is commonly believed — they are very intertwined, and it’s also incredibly difficult for us to understand or detect from moment to moment which parts of our stream of consciousness are “thinking” and which are “feeling.”
What’s worse, we have other biases that exacerbate the motivated reasoning bias — like the “Lake Wobegon Effect” wherein we tend to overestimate our own abilities vs. others. So, we’re overconfident — at the same that we are less rational than we think we are. That can be a volatile combination — especially when found in individuals who hold a lot of power, and make decisions that affect people’s lives.
For we know not what we do
It can be infuriating to deal with people who are using motivated reasoning to make decisions instead of critical thinking: they tend to work backwards from the conclusion they wish to reach, and ignore evidence that contradicts their pre-existing beliefs. The way they deal with the cognitive dissonance of conflicting information is simply to toss the new information out, instead of evaluating it. Generally, though, they are unaware that their brain is in the habit of making that easier choice, and tend to get angry when this is pointed out.
President Biden and Vice President Harris commemorated the 1 year anniversary of the January 6 attack on our democracy with morning speeches and a day of remembrance inside the Capitol rotunda with Representatives and Senators giving a number of moving speeches in their respective chambers. The tone on TV news and blue check Twitter was somber and reflective. The President referred to the violent events of Jan 6, 2021 as a terrorist attack on our democracy, and said that the threat was not yet over — that the perpetrators of that event still hold a “dagger at the throat of America.”
Only two Republicans were present in chambers when the moment of silence was held for the nation’s traumatic experience one year ago — Representative Liz Cheney and her father, Dick Cheney, the former VP and evil villain of the George W. Bush years. That this man — a cartoonish devil from my formative years as a young activist — was, along with his steel-spined force of nature daughter, one half of the lone pair that remained of the pathetic tatters of the once great party of Lincoln.
What do you do if you’re in a 2-party system and one of the parties is just sitting on the sidelines, heckling (and worse!?)? How do you restore confidence in a system that so many people love to hate, to the point of obsession? Will we be able to re-establish a sense of fair play, as Biden called on us to do today in his speech?
The Big Lie is about rewriting history
We don’t need to spend a ton of time peering deeply into discerning motive with seditionists — we can instead understand that for all of them, serving the Big Lie serves a function for them in their lives. It binds them to their tribe, it signals a piece of their “identity,” and it signals loyalty within a tight hierarchy that rewards it — all while managing to serve their highest goal of all: to annoy and intimidate liberals. Like all bullies, their primary animating drive is a self-righteous conviction that “I am RIGHT!” at all times and about all things, and that disagreement is largely punishable by death or, in lieu of that, dark twisted fantasies of death passed off lamely and pathetically as “just joking, coworker!”
The filibuster is an archaic rule that was at first only there by accident, then whittled into a sharp blade of minority rule by Southern plantation owner and virulent white supremacist John C. Calhoun — a man credited with laying the groundwork for the Civil War.
The South Carolina plutocrat strategized on behalf of wealthy aristocratic ambitions in the 1820s and 30s. Dubbed the “Marx of the master class” by historian Richard Hofstadter, Calhoun consumed himself with an obsession over how to establish permanent rule by his 1% brethren. He was an early proponent of property over people — the original “just business” kind of cold calculating supremacist that would come to typify the darker southern shadow culture of America.
Calhoun came to the conclusion that the Founders had made a grave mistake when creating the nation, and had put in too much democracy and too little property protection. He had a conviction that collective governance ought to be rolled back, because it “exploited” the wealthy planter class such as himself. During his time in the Senate he engineered a number of clever devices for the minority to rule over the collective will of the public — dubbed a “set of constitutional gadgets” for restricting the operations of a democratic government by a top political scientist at the time.
Public choice theory and Charles Koch
Slaveholding Senator John C. Calhoun inspired a series of men in the future to take up the torch of minority rule and its apparatus. James McGill Buchanan combined ideas from F. A. Hayek with fascist strains of Calhoun’s ministrations in the Senate to pack a conservative economic punch with public choice theory.
A young Charles Koch was exposed to Buchanan’s re-interpretation of Calhoun’s re-intepretation of the founders’ intentions, and embarked on a lifelong mission to indoctrinate the world in the religion of hyper-libertarian Ayn Randian fiscal austerity.
New lie, same as the old lie. The old lie is that America was never intended to be a democracy — which is doublespeak nonsense. The old lie is that the Declaration of Independence was wrong — that all men are not created equal; that the entire reason we founded a new nation was somehow misguided. But “conservatives” have been fighting fervently for this original Big Lie since time immemorial.
So: Charles Koch is the new John C. Calhoun. He and his vast navel-gazing empire of “think tanks” and other organs of self-regurgitation have managed to brainwash enough people and operate enough bots to make it almost a coin toss whether the average citizen believes the nation was founded as a democratic republic or an authoritarian theocracy.
The filibuster is one of the strongest minority rule tools in their toolbox.
Corruption erodes trust, fairness, and ultimately, the rule of law. A fair playing field is necessary for a thriving democracy. Justice must come for the rich just as she comes for the poor.
Mythology has it that “reckless Democratic spending” is to blame for the ballooning of the national debt — though the historical record shows otherwise.
In fact, the conservatives‘ beloved demi-god Ronald Reagan was the first President to skyrocket the debt, thanks to some bunk ideas from an old cocktail napkin that linger to this day — the Republican monetary theory in a nutshell is (I shit you not) that we should take all our pooled tax money and give it to… billionaires. Because, you know, they’re clearly the most qualified people to make decisions affecting the 99% poor people. Supposedly they’re the smartest folks to entrust with our money.
Trickle down, debt up
Except it’s not true, as year after year and study after study shows. Nor for all their finger-waggling at Democrats over the national debt has the GOP turned in a balanced budget since Nixon. Republicans are the most gigantic hypocrites on economics writ large, but particularly so for the national debt — with Reagan, Bush I, Bush II, and Trump all turning in record debt increases, primarily through tax cuts for the wealthy and the Gulf and Afghanistan wars.
Meanwhile, Bill Clinton balanced the budget, created a surplus, and reduced the debt during his 8 years in office, and Obama inherited the deepest recession since the 1929 Great Depression.
The financial crisis of 2008-09, itself caused by the reckless Republican zeal for deregulation — this time of financial derivatives — was a wholly GOP-owned debacle that the next president paid for politically. Nevertheless, President Obama had the debt again on a reduction path as a percentage of GDP — but then Donald “I bankrupted a series of casinos!” Trump oozed his way into the highest office in the land.
It’s weird how “reckless Democratic spending” always happens under Republican administrations!
During the Trump administration, Republicans patted themselves on the back for giving a $2.7 trillion tax cut to billionaires for no reason, while the economy was relatively hot already (after being rescued by Obama). Not only was no progress made on diminishing the debt, but the national debt actually increased (both nominally and as a percentage of GDP) under Trump’s first term even before the sudden arrival of a novel coronavirus caused it to leap into the stratosphere like a 21st century American tech oligarch.
Only when President Biden arrived on the scene and took the helm of fiscal and monetary policy did the national debt begin cooling off once again — all while dramatically and quickly scaling up covid-19 vaccine production and distribution and passing over $3 trillion in Keynesian legislation meant to get the dregs of the middle class reoriented to a place on the map vis-a-vis the 1% once again.
Republican national debt bullshit
I am hereby calling bullshit on Republicans’ crocodile tears over the national debt, which they suddenly remember only when a Democrat is in town and summarily ignore while their guy is in the hot seat burning through cash like it’s going out of style.
We need to have a better collective narrative for Democratic success on the economy. The Republicans are no longer the kings of the economic world — if they ever were. It feels more like smoke and mirrors each passing day, with climate change denial, the Inflationary Boogeyman, and other GOP Greatest Hits playing ad nauseum on the AM social media waves.
Here are at least a few things to remember about the national debt, that Republicans generally get wrong:
wars are very expensive
booms in social services are expensive too; but not as expensive as wars
there is not any perceivable truth in the old GOP party line that Democrats always overspend and Republicans are always thrifty
Reagan and both Bushes presided over two of the biggest spikes in public debt in recorded history, outside of FDR who had both the Great Depression and WWII to contend with
Clinton, Carter, Johnson, Kennedy, and Truman all decreased the debt
be wary of graphs that don’t “normalize” to GNP — it’s an attempt to “lie with statistics” by obfuscating the roles of inflation and the growth of the economy itself
there is more than one way to look at and evaluate the level of public debt
Bootlicker Kevin McCarthy showboated his way through an evening of scorn and ridicule for his audience of one: Herr Trump. His sad evening comedy routine for the “just joking!” crowd was an act of political theater given no votes in his caucus were ever in danger of voting for the bill, thus no need to persuade them. McCarthy’s speech sparked jeers and heckles from the chamber itself as well as the wider outside world, as tweets poured forth from inside and out of the Capitol.
Fortunately, the GOP Leader failed to stop Biden’s Build Back Better plan while gifting the Democrats with a healthy dose of both comedy gold and some irresistable mid-term slogans:
Dem Mid-term slogan: "My opponent doesn't want your kids to go to preschool."
Or capital vs. labor, oligarchs vs. plebes, plutocrats vs. proles, rich vs. poor — however you want to narrate it, the property vs. people struggle continues on in new and old ways, each and ere day.
Here in America, the plutocrats have devised many clever methods of hiding the class struggle behind a race war smokescreen, that is both real and manufactured — instigated, exacerbated, agitated by the likes of schlubby wife abusers like Sloppy Steve Bannon, wrinkly old Palpatines like Rupert Murdoch, and shady kleptocrats like Trump and Putin.
The United States has nursed an underground Confederacy slow burning for centuries, for sociopathic demagogues to tap into and rekindle for cheap and dangerous political power. Like The Terminator, racist and supremacist troglodytes seem always to reconstitute themselves into strange and twisted new forms, from slavery to the Black Codes to sharecropping to convict leasing to Jim Crow to Jim Crow 2.0 — the psychopaths want their homeland.
Ds need to start framing this as an oligarch's game in which a global class war is repeatedly laundered and diverted into a provincial race war. https://t.co/9a0KikBuGo
The political left loves people, and our extremists for the most part destroy capital or property that insurance companies will pay to make shiny and new again — unlike the right wing extremists who bomb federal buildings, killing hundreds of people and costing taxpayers’ money to replace.
Meanwhile, the right wing claims to be the righteous party for its extreme fixation on life before birth, yet its regulation-allergic capitalists destroy people and the natural world more broadly, from factory farming to deforestation, the destruction of habitats, strip-mining and other toxic extraction practices, and on into climate change itself. Being in fact the chief architects of manmade atmospheric devastation, they have managed to make themselves invisible from the deed by simply (wink wink!) denying it exists.
WWJD?!
Certainly, not anything the Republican Party is up to. Jesus would be sad.
Another big legislative win crossed the line for Biden’s agenda late this Friday night: the $1.2T bipartisan infrastructure bill passed the House with 6 Democrats dissenting and a whopping 13 Republicans joining to finally bring Infrastructure Week to the American people. Still to come is the other partner to the twin bills circulating in Congress, the Build Back Better reconciliation bill that would add another $2T to the most Keynesian U.S. budget in decades.
Nevertheless, the bill is largely paid for via various means including adding significantly to economic growth and GDP over the next 10 years. The Biden infrastructure bill will not raise taxes on any families making less than $400,000, a campaign promise the president consistently made and has now delivered upon.
The bipartisan infrastructure bill is the second significant piece of legislation passed under Biden’s tenure in the White House, following the $1.9T American Rescue Plan back in March to successfully tame the covid-19 pandemic.
Infrastructure Bill 2021: Breakdown
What’s in the bill? A slate of sorely needed national funds to modernize our transportation, energy, and broadband systems, including provisions for increasing renewables and lowering emissions on a large scale to combat climate change. Here’s a list of what’s included in the largest single infrastructure investment in American history:
$110B for roads, bridges, & other infrastructure
$11B for transportation safety
$39B to modernize public transit, including replacing 1000s of vehicles with zero-emission models
$66B to modernize passenger and freight rail
$12B for high-speed rail
largest federal investment in public transit in history
$65B in broadband
$42B in airports and ports, including emissions reduction and low-carbon technologies
$7.5B for 0- and low-emissions buses (including school buses) and ferries
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a broad measure of a nation’s economic output. It includes the value of all goods and services produced within a country’s geographic borders over a specified amount of time; often a year, for comparative annual GDP studies.
A national banking crisis in America that eventually spread to threaten economies around the globe, the economic crisis of 2007-8 was precipitated by the financial industry getting deeper and deeper into highly leveraged risk with a specific type of financial product called a subprime mortgage.
The loans were not of very high quality, due to the effects of predatory lending and of companies “pushing their luck” in a deregulated market by knowingly offering mortgage credit to Americans who couldn’t really afford to buy the homes they were encouraged to purchase. Mortgage underwriters were often incentivized with large bonuses for subprime signups, and even relatively well-off home buyers were often shepherded into subprime loans with worse terms than the traditional 30-year mortgages they would have qualified for.
Financial “hot potato”
The mortgages were securitized as complicated new types of assets, re-packaged into large bundles of derivatives to better obscure the sources, and rated far more favorably than warranted by the nation’s credit rating agencies. Sold swiftly around the world and especially here in the U.S. to institutional investors (who manage, among other securities, the pensions and retirement funds of the country), the game of financial “hot potato” ensured that almost no one in the complex chain of exchange had any incentive to take responsibility for the actual solvency of the underlying loans.
Eventually, the bubble popped and the house of cards came tumbling down. The downturn is widely regarded as the worst economic disaster in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s, brought on by the stock market crash of 1929.
Moral hazard: Does commercial and investment banking under one roof create the wrong incentive?
In post-recovery, much scrutiny remains over the question of whether one specific law — the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which separated commercial banking from investment banking in response to the Great Depression — should be reinstated. Following its passage, the U.S. was able to stop the previous historical cycle of banking crises with regularity about every ~15 years:
…Until “stagflation” (high inflation coupled with stagnant growth) plagued the American economy in the 1970s, and the political establishment began to adopt policies heavily influenced by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of economic thought, which borrowed heavily from an earlier wave of economic philosophy in the 1930s loosely congealed under the term “neoliberalism.” Widespread financial deregulation ensued, leading to the full repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999. Many economists now point to the deregulation spree as the ultimate cause of the 2007-8 financial crash.
